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POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY
It is sad to say that since the late 1950s, adjectives such as “tumultuous” “turbulent” and “chaotic” have been used from time to time by the British and others to describe events in the political and economic history of Guyana.
Today, even with the formation of a coalition government and large oil finds—a positive turning point for Guyana and the Caribbean region—the country’s political climate is being described by many as a soap opera due to the passage of the no confidence motion last December, and the subsequent fallout. In short, we have not disappointed the naysayers.
The government is faced with a reality check – a disgruntled member of the coalition broke ranks and voted with the Opposition. For the first time Guyana has to deal with a successful no-confidence vote. The Government and its supporters are trying to gather their wits and determine how to deal with this calamitous development. Legal minds have advised that an absolute majority should be 34 votes, and not 33, and have counseled that the matter should be taken to court for a definitive judgment. The government has concurred.
While everyone was reeling from the results of the no-confidence motion, not only did the Venezuelan Navy launch a foray into Guyanese waters, interrupting work being done by ExxonMobil, which had recently announced additional oil finds offshore Guyana, but the economy has been left to churn on its own.
Although we are only a few days into 2019, there are ominous clouds that are gathering on the horizon. As far as the economy is concerned there are already signs of a slippage in production, especially in agriculture and in the mining industry. And there hasn’t been any meaningful growth in the gross domestic product figures as boldly forecast.
If anything, the country is far more indebted than anyone could have predicted at this stage. Its trade deficit has widened as imports outweigh exports. This excess expenditure has to be met from other resources including savings/reserves, aid or loans, etc. It has been stated repeatedly that, as a small, open economy, achieving robust, sustained economic growth in Guyana depends on the country’s performance in international trade – an area that has been uninspiring to say the least
So far, there is no indication that for the first quarter of the year there will be any positive trends in the economy to make any quantitative difference to 2018. Indeed, the indicators point to negativity as political uncertainty in particular, reverberates across the country. The most that the people can hope for is, at best, a three percent growth for the year, and this is a stretch of the imagination. When one considers the low production rate coupled with increasing health care and education costs, one cannot help but see the real makings of an uncertain and perplexing year for many.
Bear in mind also that intense campaigning is likely to begin for an early election – due to the defeat of the government in the no-confidence motion. The mood in the country would be at fever pitch – especially if the court upholds the 33/32 parliamentary vote margin as a majority.
Taking all the above into consideration, one would not be wrong to assume that doom and gloom seems the most likely environment to envelop us. However, one thing is certain, no one should ever underestimate the resilience of Guyanese to ride this out as they have done several times in the past. But there will be pain.
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