Get accustomed to these motions

Dec 29, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

No-confidence motions against the government are here to stay. The no-confidence motion, which was successfully piloted on December 21st has resulted, for the first time, in the fall of a government.
But it will not be the last time that such a motion will be introduced and passed in the National Assembly. Guyanese had better become accustomed to these no-confidence motions, since they are likely to occur with increasing frequency in all future parliaments.
However, no-confidence motions must not be demonized. They have long been part of constitutional convention, and, in the United Kingdom where there is no written Constitution, are now provided for in law. They are an important means of recalling governments or testing parliamentary support for governments.
In Guyana, both of the main political parties, the PNCR and the PPPC, agreed in 2000 to amend the Constitution to provide for no-confidence motions. It was seen as a necessary means of recalling governments because of their conduct or performance. That provision, contained in Article 106(6) of the Constitution was activated last Friday.
Guyana is in for a prolonged period of parliamentary instability. This has nothing to do with the bad-mindedness or lust for power of our politicians, but because demographics have changed without any change in Guyanese voting habits.
The demographics of Guyana have changed, but Guyanese are stuck in their own traditional voting patterns. The ethnic composition of Guyana’s population has undergone major changes since 1992, but race-based voting still dominates.
The PPPC between 1992 and 2006 could always rely on the East Indian vote, which then was more than 50% of the population in 1980. The East Indian population has declined over the years and now stands at 39% of the population. East Indians still constitute the largest race in Guyana. The African population, from which the PNCR derives the bulk of its support, has dipped below 30%, even though it has declined less than the East Indian population between 2002 and 2012. On the other hand, persons classifying themselves as mixed are now 20% of the population with the Amerindians being a significant demographic at 11%.
Migration is the single most important factor responsible for the change in demographics. And the loss of persons has been most acutely felt among the youth – people between the ages of 20-34 – with a decline of 10% between 2002 and 2012, indicative of the haemorrhaging of young professionals.
Given these demographic changes, no single political party, by itself, is likely to command a majority in the National Assembly. As such, political parties will have to find ways of wooing non-traditional supporters.
That will not be easy. The PNCR joined with some negligible parties to form a grouping called APNU, which then linked with the AFC to contest as a coalition in the 2015 elections. Yet despite this, the Coalition barely won the elections by under 5,000 votes, the slimmest of electoral victories in Guyana’s history.
Coalition politics, therefore, may not necessarily come to the rescue of the PNCR. This is all the more so since the APNU+AFC Coalition was riddled with internal suspicion and mistrust.
On the other hand, the PPPC has failed to forge any alliances, deluding itself into believing that it can effectively broaden its base. That will be a most difficult task.
While, therefore, the PPPC is most likely in any future elections to command the largest bloc of votes, and therefore win the right to form the government, it is likely, like in 2011, to be a minority government.
No single political party is likely to command a majority in the National Assembly. As such, Guyanese have to become accustomed to unstable parliaments and governments, with regular no-confidence motions and general and regional elections.

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Get accustomed to these motions

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