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The AFC is not ‘dead meat’… at least not as yet

Nov 25, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The results of the local government elections (LGE) of 12th November have finally been declared. Finally and much relief!
The reason for the long delay in declaring the results may have had to do the requirement that the full Commission would have to meet to pronounce on the results before they could have been officially declared.
The delay has evoked concerns about the competence with which this aspect of the elections was conducted, given that the political parties were able to know hours after the close of polls, the true results.
It is always safe to await the final results before judgment is made, because statistics can be deceiving to the untrained eye. A number of invalid conclusions have been made about the elections, and these can now be tested against the declared results.
This column will only address two of these conclusions. The first concerns the representative nature of the results and the second concerns the showing by the Alliance for Change.
As was expected, the PPPC, which ran a more focused campaign, deservedly won the popular vote. It secured 61% of the popular vote. APNU secured 34% and the AFC just around 4%.
These results, however, cannot and should not be transposed to general and regional elections. They are not a representative of the popular will.
Local government elections and general and regional elections are two different kettles of fish. Conclusions about the national support of the parties therefore have to be qualified.
The turnout at this year’s LGE was under 40%. The voter turnout was too low to be representative of the popular will.
In any event, LGE are better viewed an indicator of existing voter disaffection than about what is likely to prevail at general and regional elections. The stakes are higher, the turnout tops 70%, and persons vote solidly along ethnic lines.
LGE provide citizens with an opportunity to exhale. In 1994, after the split within the PNC, the supporters of that party expressed their displeasure with the Hoyte faction by giving the Good and Green Guyana (GGG), a victory over the PNC.
However, three years after, the GGG was vanquished along with the small political parties at the general and regional elections. Too much, therefore, should not be read into the results of the LGEs in terms of the popular will.
The AFC was not vanquished in the LGE, as is now being stated. The AFC emerged with a credible showing.
The AFC did not contest in all constituencies. Even though, it gained only 4% of the popular vote, it managed in the 27 local authorities, in which it contested, to gain 8% of the total votes cast.
This 8% is credible. If it is replicated or bested at general and regional elections, it means the AFC will hold the balance of power within the National Assembly.
APNU is not likely to ever command more than 44% of the votes in national and regional elections. It therefore needs a party to bring it at least 7% of the votes to secure a victory. The AFC’s votes will matter.
There has been much talk about the AFC demanding too much given its perceived public support. The AFC, however, has something that APNU needs, and without which it will be consigned to the opposition benches.
Therefore, the AFC is within its right to strike a hard bargain. The AFC, even though it was 10% party in the 2011 elections, demanded a high price from APNU for the votes which it was expected to bring to the coalition in 2015.
It demanded 40% of Cabinet and parliamentary seats of the coalition. Without the AFC’s 10%, there would likely have been no coalition.
The AFC can now boast that it secured 8% of the votes in the areas it contested. While this may not be representative of the popular will at the general and regional elections, it is a powerful bargaining chip, considering that APNU managed a meagre 34% of the popular vote.
APNU’s ply of seeking to marginalize the AFC by forcing the party to establish its electoral strength has backfired. APNU needs the AFC more than ever. The AFC should strike a hard bargain, next time around. It is not dead meat… at least not as yet.

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