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Why are the PPP Candidates confident in 2018 for the LGEs?
DEAR EDITOR,
The PPP Candidates appear confident they will do even better today in 2018 than they did in the 2016 LGE and one of APNU’s big wigs conceded this to me privately. The AFC, on the other hand, are expecting a total wipe out.
For example Georgetown, a PNC stronghold, was won by that party with 83% of the seats in 2016. Today that is expected to fall to about 65% because of their poor performance in City Hall and the press releases from this Kennard COI into the management of the City.
A few nights ago, no less a person than the Prime Minister (an AFC elder) spoke at New Amsterdam, and according to a AFC leader who communicated with me “there were more stray dogs on the streets than human beings listening to his message”. This is just but another indication that things are really bad for the AFC.
Meanwhile, the PPP had very successful public meetings in Linden and Bartica, two PNC strongholds. These preliminary indications all point to a stronger PPP showing in all areas across the country. The PPP is running particularly well in the rural districts, where the youths and women are eager to send a strong message of dissatisfaction to President Granger for his poor leadership after three years.
When the people’s belly “ah bun”, they will react and the LGEs is the perfect chance for them to react. This is having an out-sized impact because in the PNC strongholds, there is “voter stall” with only the die-hards expected to come out, while the PPP is being embraced by the rural independents, women and youths overwhelmingly and are having major inroads in urban centres which are the PNC strongholds.
This situation points to great results for the PPP in these 2018 LGEs, average for APNU (PNC) and a total wipe-out of the AFC.
The PPP candidates are younger, more ethnically diverse, they have proven themselves well trained to hammer the performance of the APNU-AFC government over the last three years and to dominate the messaging. Plus as a bonus, they are ably supported and led by their party leader Bharat Jagdeo who has done a fantastic job of reinventing the PPP after May 2015 when that party was on its knees after the Ramotar Presidency.
Today the PPP is showing signs that it is moving back to basics similar to the electoral machine of 1992. But to date no one on the political front lines can match the energy level, the message of Mr. Jagdeo.
Further complicating the PNC-APNU efforts is that their campaign comes across as disorganized compared to their 2015 campaigns, as if there is some sort of infighting at the top. This has left more of their marginal supporters confused and disenchanted.
The real urban independents have now totally abandoned the PNC-APNU and clearly are not interested in the AFC. Many are going to support the PPP in these 2018 LGE. To add to that, the headwinds are already massive against APNU-PNC and AFC in many of the rural districts, so much so that they had to use tricks to launch some candidates and in others just abandon the effort to put forward candidates. You cannot call yourself a national party and not present candidates in all the districts. This is the difference between the PPP and the PNC-APNU. The PPP has put up candidates in all districts while the PNC-APNU did not.
Notwithstanding all this tailwind, the PPP success will depend on the discipline in the ground operations and the eventual turnouts. Their weakness in 2015 was their ground operations. Has this been corrected? Elections Day will provide the evidence.
On a final note, With all GECOM’s sham and weaknesses, I am convinced that the Chief Elections Officer, Mr. Lowenfield will produce an elections that is free enough and fair enough for the Guyanese people in 2018, because all eyes are on him, especially the American eyes.
Sasenarine Singh
Maryland, USA
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