The Trump next door

Oct 29, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The Guyana government and its foreign policy architects missed more than a beat when it came to the elections in Brazil. After Bolsonaro’s victory in the first round of elections, the possibility of a right ring President and its implications for Guyana, should have sounded warning bells in Georgetown.
That it did not, suggests that Guyana’s Foreign Ministry assumed that Brazilian foreign policy, even under a right wing President would not pose any headaches for Guyana. They are dead wrong, if this was their assumption.
Guyana has a great deal to worry about. Brazil, one of the largest democracies in the world, is now headed by a far right candidate, one who is likely to be a stooge of US imperialism in the region.
The United States was no innocent bystander in yesterday’s elections. It was very active behind the scenes and it has been active in pushing a broader geopolitical agenda aimed at routing the left-leaning governments in Latin America. The dismantling of left-wing governments in Latin America has always been a principal objective of US foreign policy, even after the end of the Cold War.
The US now has a formidable ally. You can bet that Brazil policy towards Venezuela is going to radically change. Instead of being a moderator of tensions within the Region, Brazil, with Bolsonaro in power, is going to intensify regional tensions and the aftershocks are going to be felt all the way to Georgetown.
Brazil will now be part of the regional lasso which is being made for Venezuela. With Brazil now likely to be firmly on the side of the imperialists, Venezuela- Brazil relations are likely to be at all- time low.
This will be of no benefit to Guyana because it will increase tensions within the region, something that is not good for Guyana two years before first oil.
Make no mistake, the international oil companies are going to pay close attention to relations between Venezuela and Brazil now that the latter has a new President. A stormy relationship between the two countries will create waves which can threaten regional peace and security.
The greatest cause of instability is likely to be dependent on what action the new President takes in relation to the exodus of persons from Venezuela into Brazil. If Bolsonaro closes his borders with Venezuela – and nothing can be ruled out under his presidency – Guyana can see more migrants pouring across our borders.
An unstable situation in the region is not good for Guyana. It will affect offshore investment and it will affect the efforts which Brazil may be willing to dedicate to forging stronger relations with Guyana.
Guyana is likely to be low in Bolsonaro’s radar. Guyana can lose an important ally in the defense of our sovereignty. Guyana now has to carefully access developments in Brasilia and to ensure that it has the quality of diplomatic personnel who have a deep understanding of what pro-fascist policies can mean for stability in the region at this juncture of its history.
The election of such a radical far-right candidate will ignite unrests in Brazil. An unstable internal situation in Brazil will mean that country will have less time for benevolence towards Guyana.
Brazilians voted for change yesterday. But they may not like the change they got. They have voted into office a man who has been described as the Trump of the Tropics. He has been described in less than flattering terms and his policies are likely to aggravate instability in Brazil rather than promote healing.
Guyana should take note. We may be in for interesting times.

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