Jagdeo is no threat to peace

Jun 29, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

One of the questions preoccupying political analysts in recent days has been what will become of the peace agreement signed between the government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). This issue arose because the winning candidate, Ivan Duque, has promised to ‘correct’ the peace accord.
When questioned about the implications for the peace agreement, one female voter simply said that the issue of peace was not just about the peace agreement. She pointed to the lack of security in many areas which were previously controlled by FARC but which are now under hostage by outlaws.
The peace agreement did not bring peace. It has created ‘garrisoned’ communities, because the void created by the absence of FARC has been filled by gangs who deal in violence.
Peace is not the absence of political violence. There can be an absence of political violence and yet there is no peace. The lack of peace can mean the lack of security, as is the case in Guyana at the moment.
Guyana is free from political violence. Those who owned the ‘dogs’ have called them off. There are no disruptive political protests. But is Guyana a peaceful place?
Ask that family from West Demerara whose home was invaded recently and the husband beaten and robbed and the wife raped? Where is the peace?
Where is the peace when a man who is trying to build his home and who sells phone cards is attacked by an armed assailant and shot dead in front of his home? His wife is now a widow and his children are fatherless?
Where is the peace when hardly a week now goes by without some incident of domestic violence resulting in murder and suicide? Guyana does not have political violence. Yet Guyana is far from being peaceful.
The former President of Guyana Bharrat Jagdeo made some comments recently that if elections are rigged then the government is not going to have the peace which presently exists. The struggle, he said, would take a different form, since the government would be illegitimate.
This is not a threat of political violence as some propagandists are trying to make it out to be. The opposition leader is simply saying that any attempt at thwarting the democratic will of the people will result in his party having to treat the government as illegitimate and therefore the country can expect political agitation. Political agitation is not a call to violence.
If elections are rigged in 2020, ExxonMobil is not going to produce a drop of oil, because a domestic political crisis raises their political risk. Now this may seem strange given the record of oil companies in other societies which are far more democratic than Guyana. However, in Guyana’s case, the rigging of elections will create an uncertain political future. Exxon will want to know how any new government will treat with its contract. Political uncertainty makes it difficult to know this.
A political crisis can force hostile foreign forces to want to invade Guyana or expel foreign investors. And this is something that most of the major investors, not just Exxon alone, will be concerned about.
The rigging of elections will see a drying-up of investment. There are already concerns being expressed about the decline in non-oil foreign direct investment in the economy. With a political crisis, this situation will get worse before it gets better.
The rigging of elections will see Guyana ostracized internationally. Guyana will become a pariah state. Guyana is going to be expelled from a number of international groupings. The opposition is going to press for sanctions on government leaders and visas are going to be hard to get, since there will be fear of a mass exodus.
The possibility of rigged elections should not be dismissed. The international community cannot ensure free and fair elections; they may pronounce that an election was fraudulent but they cannot prevent manipulation of the votes. Some foreign powers even turn a blind eye to election irregularities.
Venezuela has one of the best election machinery in the world. Yet the Americans said that the vote was fraudulent, even though it was not. In fact, President Maduro did so poorly that if the opposition had a unified candidate, it could have easily won the elections.
Jagdeo is no threat to peace. The real threat is whether democratic elections are going to be held and whether crime can be reduced so that all these murders and rapes which are taking place can be brought to an end.
Unless these things happen, Jagdeo or no Jagdeo, there can be no peace in society.

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Jagdeo is no threat to peace

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