PNCR runs things within the AFC

Apr 14, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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The PPPC won the popular vote in the 2016 local government elections. Using its strong rural support, the party was able to command 25,000 more votes in those elections than the coalition. But it failed to make inroads into traditional PNCR strongholds as it had done in the previous local government elections, just after it had taken office.
Looking at the overall results, the APNU+AFC coalition can be said to have done well, because it dented PPPC’s support in Georgetown, reducing the PPPC to a mere 2 seats. And it swept its traditional strongholds, unchallenged.
In terms of maintaining its turf, the AFC and APNU have traditionally drawn the bulk of their support from the towns. In this context, the creation of three new towns by the APNU+AFC administration was seen as an attempt to weaken the PPPC’s commanding domination of Regions 1, 7 and 9.
The APNU+AFC coalition was successful in its objectives in establishing footholds in these regions through the creation of new towns. APNU+AFC has control of the municipalities of Mabaruma, Bartica and Lethem. With these footholds, it has been able to build up its support in these areas.
In Georgetown, the coalition has weakened the PPPC. Predictably, it has retained its support in New Amsterdam and Linden, and done fairly well in Rose Hall and Corriverton, even though it failed to unseat the PPPC in both of these municipalities.
The PPPC’s strategy in the 2016 polls was obvious. It won the popular vote, but that was not what it set out to do. The PPPC successfully used the 2016 polls to restore its traditional rural support. It did so, sweeping most of the neighbourhood democratic councils. However, it fared disastrously in Georgetown, only achieving two seats.
With this in mind, it is surprising that the AFC has decided to contest this year’s local government polls in coalition with APNU. The AFC, which has been sidelined and humiliated, along with the WPA, in government, could have used these polls as a reminder to the PNCR that it, the AFC, commands a critical 10% of the vote.
The AFC held the balance of power (BOP) in the 2011 parliament. It squandered the opportunities that the BOP presented for improving its electoral appeal and independence. It found itself as a foot soldier of the PNCR in and outside of parliament, to the extent now where there is a perception that the PNCR has skillfully engineered a change in leadership within the AFC.
The AFC, which is smarting from being sidelined by the PNCR in the allocation of seats in the municipalities and NDCs following the 2016 polls, could have used this year’s polls to demonstrate its electoral strength – that strength is believed to be around 10%, judging from the almost carbon copy results of the general and regional elections of 2011 and 2015.
In the 2011 elections, the support of the PNCR and the AFC collectively reached almost 50%. This support tipped slightly over this mark when the two parties formed a coalition for the 2015 general and regional elections.
The AFC is going to be used as a doormat unless it serves the PNCR a reminder of its contribution to the coalition’s victory. The 2018 local government elections would have been the right occasion to send that signal. But the AFC either got cold feet or its leadership has become indistinguishable from the PNCR.
The PPPC does not pose any threat to the PNCR or the AFC in this year’s polls in the municipalities. This is a little surprising, given the coalition’s dismal performance in government – it has been the worst performing government in Guyana’s history despite commanding a great deal of goodwill and facing no destabilization from the PPPC.
The coalition has pawned Guyana’s future away by its bungling of oil contract negotiations. It has made the scandalous deals of the PPPC looking visionary. The oil contract negotiations, in the context of Guyana’s polarized politics, may not hurt the coalition electorally in 2018, but it is surely going to haunt the grouping for 2020.
The PPPC is going to retain the support it commanded in the 2016 local government polls. Nothing is going to change that. And the PPPC seems to have accepted its wipeout in Georgetown, Linden and New Amsterdam. It is not likely to do any better this time around. In fact, the PPPC has not been campaigning much in these areas.
It is in this context, that the AFC could have tried to demonstrate its electoral appeal in these PNCR heartlands. It could have established also that despite its rural support being small, it is still collectively vital to the coalition’s majority.
But the AFC is worried that its support is dwindling and that the middle class has abandoned it. It may have reason to do so, given the perception that the PNCR now runs things within the AFC’s leadership.

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