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No legal option by January 2018

Nov 10, 2017 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

This column does not usually respond to its critics except where there is misrepresentation of the positions taken within the column. This is clearly the case in relation to the response of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to a recent column on the Guyana/Venezuela controversy.
The column had sought to make the following assertions. First, that the talks in New York recently between the foreign ministers of the two countries are a foreboding that the controversy is not going to be sent to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) come January of 2018 because, in diplomatic lexicon, if two sides had been reluctant to engage and now are engaging, this represents ‘significant’ progress.
The understanding that Guyana has of the decision of the Secretary General of the United Nations is that there would have been one year of the good offices process and if there was no significant progress in that year, the matter would be referred to the ICJ.
It is this column’s contention that the recent talks in New York can be viewed as representing progress and therefore there is no likelihood of the matter being sent to the ICJ this year end.
The second assertion follows from this. It argues that Guyana made a mistake in pinning its hopes, almost exclusively, on the matter being sent to the ICJ.
In order for the matter to go to the ICJ, Venezuela has to agree since Venezuela is not a member of the ICJ. Guyana is pinning all its hopes on the ICJ but the fact of the matter is that the United Nations cannot compel Venezuela to go that route. What happens if Venezuela decides against the ICJ?
It was asserted also that Guyana, following Venezuela’s decrees in May of 2016, should have done what is basic to diplomacy, it should have engaged the Venezuelans in talks at the highest level. If it is Guyana’s position that it has been talking for fifty years and it does not wish to continue to talk, then Guyana has to live with the consequences of not having engaged more seriously with Venezuela since May 2015.
One of the consequences of not talking was the loss of the rice market. The loss of the rice market was not simply a matter of trade and economics and it is now being made out to be. The loss of the rice market was a consequence of the row which broke out over the Venezuela decree of May 2016 and which saw a war of words between Caracas and Georgetown.
There was no reason why the rice market should have been lost. Venezuela was facing a food crisis. It needed food. Why would it have stopped buying rice from Guyana if this decision was unrelated to the territorial controversy? The loss of the rice market was not as a result of trade and economics. It was because of the war of words.
Guyana was never interested in talks, which could have saved the rice market, because it is being advised that it should go the legal route. The legal route is costly and will not lead to an immediate solution.
On the issue of the legal fees, this column was never suggesting that Guyana should abandon the option of a juridical settlement because of high legal fees. This column was pointing to the fact that Guyana has pinned all its hopes on one option, the legal option. The legal route, however, is costly and time consuming.
There is no likelihood that Venezuela will consent to the matter going to the ICJ. So why pin so much hope on an option that is not likely to be invoked?
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, probably sooner rather than later, will have to explain to the Guyanese people, what happens if come December 31, 2017, the United Nations indicates that significant progress has been made and the good offices process should continue. It means that Guyana would have failed to have the matter referred to the ICJ as at January 1, 2018.
This column will go out on a limb and predict that the United Nations will recommend that the good offices continue. Will Guyana talk then? Or will it say that it has been talking for too long?
Guyana has already spent a fortune on legal fees. And it will still have to talk come January. So why not have talked all along while pursuing the legal route?

 

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