Guyana has been outfoxed by Venezuela

Nov 07, 2017 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Guyana has bungled its handling of the territorial controversy with Venezuela. The talks which were held recently in New York between the foreign Ministers of Guyana and Venezuela suggest strongly that Guyana will not achieve its objective of having the matter placed before the International Court of Justice.
Guyana had no choice, after Venezuela issued decrees in 2015 claiming parts of Guyana’s sea space, to internationalize this issue. Guyana took the right step to launch a diplomatic offensive against the threats posed by Venezuela.
This has always been the response of Guyana. It always has pursued the diplomatic option to any threat that it has faced from Venezuela. This time, however, Guyana was more belligerent and reckless.
Guyana forgot the most fundamental rule in diplomacy. You talk first and then you act. Guyana was not interested in talking with Venezuela. The war of words between Guyana and Venezuela led to a recall of the Venezuelan ambassador to Guyana
Guyana also sacrificed its rice market with Venezuela. For the sake of political grandstanding, Guyana was prepared to place the livelihoods of Guyanese farmers in jeopardy by sacrificing the rice market in Venezuela. Guyana should not have allowed that to happen. Venezuela, facing a food crisis, was not going to stop buying Guyana’s rice, unless it was forced to do so.
Despite Venezuela’s claims to two-thirds of Guyana, Guyana was able to broker this valuable rice market. In other words, trade and economic cooperation with Venezuela was taking place. When Burnham failed in 1981 to have the Protocol of Port of Spain renewed, and relations with Caracas were seriously soured, this did not prevent Guyana from buying fuel from Venezuela. There was also consideration being given at one time to have power sold from Venezuela to ease Guyana’s then energy shortfall.
The second major failing was the challenge which Guyana faced in combatting a Venezuelan diplomatic counter offensive within Latin America and the Caribbean. Venezuela launched a diplomatic blitz when Guyana tried to isolate it within Caricom, and Guyana had no response to that blitz, because it did not have the resources or the know-how to respond. Caricom was always going to call for talks and negotiations as a condition of its support for Guyana’s position.
The third mistake that Guyana made was to place all its eggs in one basket. It decided to go for a juridical settlement of the dispute without carefully contemplating how realistic were the chances of success.
The Granger administration has been raising expectations in Guyana about this controversy being settled by the International Court of Justice. The matter, however, is never likely to end up before the ICJ, because Venezuela is not a member of the ICJ and it requires the approval of both parties to a controversy for a matter to go in front of the ICJ. So Guyana is misdirecting its diplomatic efforts – in a direction in which there is little hope.
The Granger administration should never have placed all its eggs in one basket, because if there is no resort to the International Criminal Court, then Guyana ends up with nothing. What then?
Even if some miracle happens and Venezuela decides to take the matter to the ICJ, this is going to cost Guyana a fortune. The lawyers for these cases do not come cheap. Guyana’s legal bills for the maritime dispute with Suriname were hefty and were paid for by CGX. Exxon is not going to pay any legal fees for Guyana. And so what it means is that Guyana is going to be saddled, if per chance the matter goes to the ICJ, with a hefty legal bill which will have to be absorbed by the oil proceeds which are not guaranteed unless production begins.
Even if the matter does go to the ICJ eventually, this is a drawn-out process. Bolivia and Chile, which is like the Guyana-Venezuela dispute, is to be settled by an international agreement. However Bolivia, which is now landlocked, wants access to the sea and claims that Chile had promised to begin negotiations on access to the sea. Bolivia is not asking for a settlement of its disputed borders. It only wants the ICJ to force negotiations with Chile. The case has been ongoing now for three years. How long will Guyana’s own take and is it going to finance the legal tab?
Guyana was hoping that come this year end, the United Nations would have ruled that there has not been significant progress in the good offices process with Venezuela, and that as a consequence, the matter should go to the ICJ.
Guyana here again miscalculated. Significant progress in the diplomatic dictionary can mean sides talking to one another when they previously were not talking to one another. And recently the foreign ministers of the two countries have been talking to one another. This is significant progress. And this means the prospect of the matter being sent to the ICJ is remote. Guyana is now locked into a good offices process, which can drag on for another 10 years.

1 thoughts on “Guyana has been outfoxed by Venezuela”

Dennis Mckenzie November 7, 2017 at 1:45 pm

Peeping Tom,I believe,though you have peeped so long, you do not really understand what is taking place.Guyana has talked enough,and I feel,this is the moment for a settlement before the International Court of Justice(ICJ) without any hesitation or delay..