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THE AFC MAY BE ABSORBED BY APNU

Mar 05, 2017 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

History is repeating itself in different ways. In 1964, the PNC under Forbes Burnham joined with The United Force (TUF) to oust the PPP from power; in 2011, forty-seven years later, APNU joined with the AFC to do the same once again.
The PNC eventually ditched TUF. Burnham never had a good working relationship with the head of that party who was the Finance Minister. Burnham wanted things his own wayward way and The United Force leader would have none of it. The coalition was on the verge of a collapse on more than one occasion. It took the direct involvement of the United States Embassy to convince the leader of TUF to stay on.
From day one, the coalition reeked of political suspicions between the two partners. The working relationship was always tense, even though the parties put up a united face to the public.
By the time 1968 came around, Burnham had had enough of coalition politics. He announced that never again would he lead the People’s National Congress into a coalition. He dumped the United Force, rigged the elections, and turned the clock backwards on the development of Guyana by pursuing a pseudo-socialist model known as Cooperative Socialism.
On Valentine Day 2015, A Partnership for National Unity or APNU as it is called, of which the PNCR is the principal party, signed an agreement with the Alliance For Change (AFC) to form a pre-election coalition. The coalition narrowly won the 2015 elections. But the coalition is not working well. Like what happened between 1964 and 1968, the coalition is giving the appearance of good health, but it is not functioning as a coalition ought to.
The AFC was effectively outfoxed by APNU. The first sign that there would be problems was when the Prime Minister was not announced immediately upon the swearing-in of the President. This caused some strains within the AFC. But what really caused real concern was the perception that the AFC had become a secondary rather than an equal partner within the coalition government.
The Cummingsburg Accord was a pre-election agreement, but it did not cater for what would happen after the elections. It concentrated too much on the allocation of seats in the National Assembly, and too little on finding a consensual mechanism for governing the country. But it was a hurried agreement, and all the bases could not have been covered or even contemplated.
The AFC therefore found itself in a situation in which, because of the narrowness of the electoral victory, it could not make increased demands on APNU after the elections. It has achieved one of its objectives – that of removing the PPP – but unfortunately this came at a price of not being able to create a new political culture.
APNU had the upper hand and it still does. The AFC should have been brave enough to call for a post-election agreement which would require certain prescribed majorities within Cabinet before any policy is approved. Right now the AFC is being outnumbered and outvoted within the Cabinet. It is being treated as a sidekick of APNU.
The PNC in 1966 had successfully wooed over leaders from The United Force into its leadership. It did this also with other parties not represented in the National Assembly, thereby presenting a united face, while all the while sidelining The United Force.
The AFC must therefore be careful about its leadership being bought out by APNU. It must try to regain its independence within the government, otherwise it will lose support. There are fears that the direction in which the AFC is presently moving will lead it to merely follow APNU rather than have a coalition of equal partners.
History is repeating itself. APNU has won political power. It can afford to dump the AFC. It does not need that so-called partnership anymore. But it will need the affiliation in 2020, and so the possibility exists that APNU will move toward absorbing the AFC, thereby having one party.
The United Force never recovered after Burnham dumped it in 1968. The AFC may soon face the same fate.

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