The cycles of unfilled expectations will continue

Jan 25, 2016 Letters

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Dear Editor,
Since 1992, we have had six (6) national / regional elections that were each keenly contested. The run-up to each of those elections was marked by heavy campaigning, with the main parties promising just about everything under the sun, leading to a situation where the campaigns became more about building expectations, rather than managing them. A veteran politician did let us know that election rallies are “to energize supporters not to deal with issues and policies” (KN, April 1, 2015). And so, it seems all election campaigns boil down to hype, catchy phrases and pillorying the ‘enemy’, with a sprinkle of reality here and there.
Discarding history and critical analyses as guides, our electorate has gone into each election hanging on to those very promises. In the aftermath of the elections and their accompanying euphoria, we become anxious, waiting for those promises – some very unrealistic – to materialize. In our anxiety to want to see things happen we flood the government with our outpourings of goodwill, and genuine willingness to help. And when no one seems to care, or even hear us, we begin to wonder if we had made the right choice.
In the end, most of the anxious supporters would withdraw from the political melee, drifting back to their daily lives of the ‘same ole’, and to begin the long wait for the next elections to come around, resolute not to make the same mistake again, but alas, only to begin the same cycle anew.
It is no secret that a large section of Guyanese regard government with distrust, seeing it as being incapable of changing their fate for the better. There are people who just do not vote, for different reasons, including religious ones. Those persons will tell you that regardless of who win or lose the elections, their own lives will not change; that they have basically resigned themselves to their own fate, and to the will of the Almighty.
Many also feel that positive politically-led changes in Guyana occur ever so slowly, that their own involvement as a voter is of little consequence on the socio-economic outcome over the long run. Still, there are others who feel that the political will which successive governments have mustered, were no match for the enormity of the problems we have.
I mentioned the foregoing because of two things. First, there is in reality very little enthusiasm about the upcoming local government elections (LGE). This is clearly evident from the turnout at GECOM public meetings / voter-education programmes, held in preparation for LGE. Secondly, the percentage voter turnout for the last three (3) general elections was on an average 17 points lower than it was 20 years ago.
All of the above clearly point to growing voter apathy. In the table below, I have presented the results for the past six (6) elections (source:www.caribbeanelections.com ), with specific emphasis on the electoral performance of the Peoples Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) administration which governed Guyana for 22+ years.
The best performance for the party occurred during the years when the Jagans were alive and influential; thereafter both voter turnout and support for the party generally declined.

ELECTION YEAR	VOTER TURNOUT (%)	VALID VOTES CAST	VOTES FOR PPP/C	VOTES FOR PPP/C (%)	INTER-ELECTION CHANGE (%)
1992	81.00	303,176	162,058	53.45	–
1997	88.42	399,510	220,667	55.23	1.78
2001	91.73	396,516	210,013	52.96	-2.27
2006	68.82	335,258	182,156	54.33	1.37
2011	72.89	342,126	166,340	48.62	-5.71
2015	72.19	412,012	202,694	49.20	0.58
Average	79.18	364,766	190,655	52.30	-0.85

Now, the Jagans were in the main seen as mature and trustworthy leaders, capable of putting the concerns of the country first and delivering the kind of purposive governance to address those concerns. They were said to be keen listeners, empathizing with their supporters and the nation as a whole, and being willing to embrace the goodwill that came their way. They were also said to be cautious in what they promised, being more realistic and truthful, thus allowing them to better deliver on their promises.
In the table above, both the voter turnout and support for the PPP grew after its first term in office. How was this increase in confidence possible, if not by meeting the expectations of the people, and displaying a modicum of inclusivity?
After the Jagan era was over, how did our leaders manage the public’s political expectations and the goodwill shone towards the PPP administration? How different was that from what is obtained now?   Even though there were gains in the 1990s, the average inter-election change in support for the PPP over six elections was minus (-) 0.85%. What happened during the latter nine years of its administration?
These latter nine years correspond to the period when the public’s access to information grew, particularly through the advent and subsequent expansion of social media. Most times what was shared, and which influenced public opinion, was not wholly acceptable, if not distasteful.
The current administration is now eight months old, and people are beginning to question if the expectations they held back in May 2015, were well-founded. People want to see action being taken on the issues highlighted during the campaign; they want the results that had been promised; and they want proof of the many claims that were made. Some feel that their offer of encouragement and goodwill are being ignored, and that too many now in authority have become haughty and inaccessible.
What should be most worrying is that the dissatisfaction among the population seems to be setting-in a little too early, and a little too quickly. So this goes back all the way to creating and managing expectations. Some are saying that they have begun the long wait for 2020 to come around when what happened in 2015 will be reversed. The PPP suffered an average change in voter support of minus 0.85%. If the current coalition administration, which can be regarded as the ultimate in democratic socio-political experimentation for Guyana, should suffer such a change, it willat best be reduced to a minority government, next time around. And, of course, the national feelings of hopelessness, helplessness and voter apathy will continue to soar.
Khemraj Tulsie   

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