THE AFC HAS TO BE CAREFUL

Sep 27, 2015 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The Alliance for Change (AFC) is between a rock and a hard place. It has to decide whether to contest local government elections alone or whether it will do as part of the same coalition that won the elections; either way, the decision will be controversial.
The AFC had said that even though it was part of the coalition it wanted to maintain its independence. During the campaign for the general and regional elections it tried its best to do so. It was successful to an extent that it did raise its own funds, a whopping $400M by its own admission. While it shared a common political platform with A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), it did generally run its own campaign. It was therefore not a surrogate of APNU.
It has faced some criticism in government that it has allowed itself to be marginalized. For example, there have been publicly admitted and expressed concerns about violations of the Cummingsburg Accord. There is a body of opinion that the AFC has been shafted in the implementation of the Accord and is trying to save face by taking a posture that it is in fact an equal partner in the government.
The AFC feels that it brought sufficient votes to the coalition to allow it to win the seat of government. It feels that its block of support is not insubstantial. For these reason, its supporters who feel that the party is being marginalized, feel that the AFC needs to publicly remind APNU of the strength of its support.
This is one of the perspectives that is pushing for the AFC to contest local government elections. A reminder to the APNU that the AFC is a substantial party would allow it to press for the full compliance with the original terms of the Cummingsburg Accord and specifically for domestic affairs to be put under the control of the Prime Minister as that agreement dictates. If the AFC can show that it controls at least 10 per cent of the popular vote then it will be in a stronger position to make demands on APNU to be treated more fairly within the coalition.
A second reason for the AFC going it alone in local government elections is that the party has to maintain its political independence and since the stakes are not as high in local government elections, the party should seek to run independent at local government elections.
For one, this will allow the party to consolidate and expand its support base. It would be naïve for the AFC to believe that its alliance with the APNU is a permanent arrangement. The AFC must know by now that eventually the two will have to part ways in the same way that Burnham ditched the United Force in 1968, pledging to never again enter into another alliance. The AFC can lose its popular support unless it maintains some degree of independence.
Unlike general and regional elections, it can still join with APNU after the local government elections. It can do so to keep the PPPC and the other groupings out of control of local government organs since such coalitions are allowed. The PNCR and the PPP had double-banked the AFC after the 2011 regional elections. The two parties had combined to deny the AFC certain positions.
These are the push factors for the AFC to contest local government elections alone. There are however pull factors for the AFC to maintain its alliance with APNU and to contest local government elections as single entity.
There is the view that going separately will send the message that the coalition is divided. It is felt that it would not be in the best interest of the new government for the parties to contest local government elections. This can also create minor fractures in the coalition that can grow larger.
The AFC therefore has a choice to make. That choice has to involve a decision as to how long it sees this coalition as being together and whether a lengthy relationship will undermine its independence and the machinery of the party. The longer the AFC stays in the coalition, the greater is likely to be the loss of its support, including its leadership who, rubbing shoulders on a daily basis with APNU, can easily be wooed over to join the partnership.
The decision of the AFC will ultimately boil down to whether it wants to be independent or whether it wants to be opportunistic. APNU is making no secret that it believes that it can attain a majority of the votes given demographic shifts and the fact that it is clearly plugging hinterland development to win the Amerindian vote.
The AFC can end up with the wrong end of the stick, not in its hands but in that part of the human anatomy where a stick does not belong.

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THE AFC HAS TO BE CAREFUL

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