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Battle for Opinion Poll Prediction in Trinidad

Sep 06, 2015 Letters

Dear Editor,
Over a dozen pollsters (including from Jamaica, Barbados, England, Canada and US) are conducting opinion polls to predict Monday’s general elections in Trinidad. Virtually all the polls gave different outcomes.
Generally speaking, polls conducted around the same time should produce similar results. But that has not been the case in Trinidad similar to what happened for the 2007 elections.
It is being referred to as the battle of the polls not significantly different from the battle to form the government.
There are 41 seats with the PP safe in 15 and PNM safe in 16 and ten seats very close called marginals.
A poll commissioned by the Guardian newspaper puts the opposition PNM well ahead to win the election leading in virtually all of the marginal seats.
A poll commissioned by Express Newspaper puts the race a dead heat with the ruling PP leading by 2% and not offering a projection in seats. Several polls commissioned by the PNM and done by polling organizations from US, Canada and UK put the PNM winning a landslide. Similar PP commissioned polls also conducted by different pollsters from US, UK and Canada give the PP a landslide victory.
Local pollsters are divided with a few giving a PP and a few giving the PNM a comfortable victory.
A UWI conducted poll gives the PP 23/24 seats. The independent NACTA poll finds the Peoples Partnership on track towards re-election leading the opposition Peoples National Movement by 4% in popular support and 21-18 seats with 2 seats.
The findings do not rule out a decisive victory (22 to 24 seats) for either party though the findings reveal a hotly contested election.
The poll also finds competitive contests in fourteen seats (ten being defended by the PP and four currently held by the PNM) with the former likely to retain seven, neck and neck in two, and losing one to the PNM.
The PNM is fending off stiff challenges in four seats and is projected to lose one to the PP. The Prime Ministerial contenders, Kamla Persad Bissessar and Dr. Keith Rowley, are safely ensconced in their respective (Indian and African) seats winning by larger majorities than in 2010.
NACTA found PP has lost support in several seats making it more hotly contested than in the last general election.
One PNM commissioned poll has the PP losing a safe Indian seat.
And one PP commissioned poll has the PNM losing two safe African seats. NACTA poll found all three seats remaining in traditional hands as the electorate is not breaking from the tribalized pattern of voting that has been institutionalized since 1956s.
PNM is confident of wresting a dozen seats from PP and forming the government. NACTA gives it up to ten of those 12 seats. In 2007, pollsters found Basdeo Panday’s party losing all the Indian seats to Winston Dookeran’s COP.
NACTA’s poll contradicted those findings awarding all 15 Indian seats to Panday and that was the outcome embarrassing the other pollsters. A similar outcome is possible in the battle of the pollsters.
Vishnu Bisram

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