National mood and the psyche of change must now be utilized to catapult development

May 20, 2015 Letters

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DEAR EDITOR,
I must extend congratulatory remarks to President David Granger and the APNU/AFC coalition for their success at the recent polls. Gratitude must also be extended to the PPP/C for their role in providing a stable macroeconomic environment and setting a solid platform for Guyana’s imminent take-off as well as the trajectory into the ranks of high middle income countries.
At this juncture, the new Government must seek to continue to drive the economy forward with continued modernization, implementation and formation of the necessary social overhead capital/infrastructure and facilitating a stable and conducive economic environment for the provision of growth.
While any administration can drive an economy forward with the right economic plans, a country in both its economic and social formation faces a critical juncture when a government changes i.e. the concomitant development which ensues is solely dependent on that government’s ability to confidently direct the economy. A juncture is created where the pace of development can either be tapered or improved upon.
History is littered with such examples that would allow us to see this clearly. Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930’s was able to lift the US out of the Great Depression, with a change in government from Herbert Hoover. Under the guidance of Lee Kuan Yew from the very beginning, Singapore was able to modernize and rapidly advance to become one of the most advanced countries in the world.
Everyone, from the most extreme leftists in socialists like Vladimir Lenin in the early 20th century to the most extreme right-wingers, in neo-liberal leaders, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were able to utilize their newfound change to push the development agenda forward. In Guyana in 1992, Dr. Cheddi Jagan in the form of the PPP and the administration set about to do this. In 2015, in Guyana, the Granger administration must seek to do the same.
In observation of each of these political parties and their governing, one can notice marked differences in their styles of economic management, each appearing on different places in the political spectrum. What is common among all of these, and at the helm of any successful administration is the ability to grab hold of the public’s Animal Spirits.
The term was first utilized by one of the most influential economists in world history, John Maynard Keynes, in the manuscript used to lift the United States and the world out of the Great Depression, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, in 1936. This classic work commences the involvement of government to drive an economy forward in modern economic history. Today, Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller in his 2009 book Animal Spirits identifies the same factor being responsible for lifting an economy, outside of good economic policy.
What exactly is Animal Spirits and what comprises this Animal Spirits? Animal Spirits in its most simplistic sense refers to the national mood. In Guyana, at this juncture, the national mood is hopeful. Even those folks who were support of the PPP/C administration, while comfortable with the former administration, do not know what this new administration will bring but are hoping for the best.
It is this normative rubric that the Granger Administration must utilize to aid in catapulting development above what the PPP/C administration was capable of doing. This attribution to their political party arises simply because of the agent/catalyst for change which the APNU/AFC coalition has manifested itself as. A few critical components of these Animal Spirits are to be harnessed by this Granger administration to push development forward in Guyana.
1)    Confidence in Government and the Multipliers
The Granger administration must seek to grab hold of the confidence of the public through the maintenance of law and order in society, demonstrating knowledgeable and informed decisions, installing capable and competent persons in public offices. Simply put, people must know that the decisions which this government is making are not ‘fly by night’ decisions or decisions which occur in the best interest of some special interest group or an elite oligarch.
A demonstration of these qualities will have a multiplicative effect in an economy, capable of generating increased commitment from a vast segment of society; manifesting itself in behaviour both in the social and economic formations of Guyana. This ‘successful harnessing’ of this segment of ‘Animal Spirits’ is almost a pre-condition to ensuring an improved pace of development happens.
2)    Corruption and Bad Faith
Corruption and bad faith in a government dampens the ‘Animal Spirits’ and the Granger administration must ensure that corruption does not hinder development and that the accompanying bad faith does not occur. What this does is kill the confidence which a people has in its government and destroys the fundamental axiom of harnessing Animal Spirits, the notion of Confidence (as well as destroying the multiplicative effects which come with it.)
The previous administration, whether actually corrupt or not, was perceived to be corrupt by the Guyanese populace as was indicated by the Corruption Perception Index Report and in social psychology of public policy, perception by the populace, matters more in determining the success of a policy and the outcome than the reality of the actions of public officials.
What the Granger Administration must do is everything in its power to fight that perception of corruption and the implementation of the Commission in the 100 days plan should be of utmost priority so as to harness a better national mood.
3)    Fairness
Probably most critical to the Granger administration is the notion of fairness in society. It is common knowledge through both historic trends and observation that the PPP/C support base still lies in that of Indo-Guyanese. Compounding that, demonstrative from the voting pattern, much of the support comes from regions outside of Georgetown (rural Guyana).
What is critical to ensuring that this economic development is catapulted to a stage which sees confidence and participation from every cross section of the demographic is fairness and equity opportunity in the economy. As such, Indo-Guyanese who reside in rural Guyana must feel just as fairly treated as other demographic cross-sections in different spheres of the society.
The Granger administration in addition must ensure that there is a notion of meritocracy in their decision-making whereby nepotism, cronyism and the interests of special interest/oligarchic groups are not being catered for in the deliverance or formation of policy. As such, the populace must feel a sense of security that once they work hard in Guyana, there is a likely chance for upward social mobility because the economic system is so devised, constructed and facilitated by the government.
It is my hope, like many other Guyanese, that development occurs and, on a personal basis, faster than seen under the previous administration, with an aim for the Golden Rule of Growth at 8%. With a renewed sense of nationalistic pride, I wish this administration the best as we seek to move forward as a country, under our motto of One People in One Nation with One Destiny.
Richard N. Rambarran

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