Guyana should keep options open in territorial conflict with Venezuela

Dec 24, 2014 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

---

It is not for the United Nations to decide on how the territorial conflict between Guyana and Venezuela is going to be resolved. The United Nations is just acting as a good officer between the two countries; the ultimate decision on how best to resolve this conflict will have to be decided by both countries and not by the United Nations.
Just before he died, Burnham was examining a proposal to cede access to the Atlantic to the Venezuelans. While he was singing one tune to the Guyanese people, behind their backs he was doing another thing. While he was preaching to the Guyanese about not giving up a blade of grass, he was seriously considering allowing Venezuela certain rights of passage to the Atlantic.
As with so many other things, he misread the Venezuelan position on the territorial controversy. They were not seeking a concession in order to withdraw their claim to a substantial portion of Guyana. They did not ask for the territorial claim to be reopened because they wanted access to the Atlantic.
This has never been the motivation behind Venezuela’s claim. The basis of that claim is that they believed that there was a conspiracy between the Americans and the Russians to rob them of land during the 1899 arbitral hearings which went overwhelmingly in Guyana’s favour.  They were not seeking access to the Atlantic. It was attempting to reverse the arbitral award of 1899 which it views onto this day as a historical injustice.
Our local statesmen and women have to be careful when they mention that various options are being considered. They have to understand the rightness of Guyana’s position, but they also have to appreciate what drives the other side.
Guyana has to be very cautious and avoid making statements to the effect that when it comes to judicial action or arbitration it is for the United Nations to decide. It is not for the United Nations at all.
We must not get confused with an international convention under which certain disputes can be settled and assume that when it comes to exercising the use of that mechanism, it is up to the international body under whose auspices the convention was developed. Not at all!
The dispute over the marine boundaries between Guyana and Suriname was settled under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. But both countries, Guyana and Suriname, were the ones who could
have exercised the option of going for an arbitral settlement. Guyana decided to do so, and since Suriname is a member of the Convention, it was obligated to be part of the process.
Suriname came out worse off. The political ramifications were not good for the then government. And so it is likely to be should the same happen in relation to the Guyana/Venezuela territorial controversy. If Guyana moves towards a judicial settlement, then it will have to live with the outcome of that settlement. If in this process, Guyana loses land, then the government will have to live with the political fallout.
The same applies to Venezuela. If Venezuela agrees to go along with Guyana to have a judicial settlement, then Venezuela has to live with that consequence.
If the 1899 arbitral award is deemed a definitive settlement of the issue, then the Venezuelan government will come under intense pressure from their people. So it is easy to speak about going to a judicial settlement. But the political risks involved for both countries are high.
But why speak about judicial options. The controversy is not hindering relations between the two countries.  Relations between Guyana and Venezuela are not just good.
They are excellent. Since the PPPC took government, relations between Guyana and Venezuela have been at an all-time high. Venezuela is now a major trading partner with Guyana. Indeed, if Venezuela should stop buying our rice, the rice industry as we now know it will collapse.
There are however troubling clouds overhead. The Venezuelan economy is bracing itself for further problems. The decline in oil prices will hurt the Venezuelan economy and by extension the many preferences that it can offer to countries like Guyana.
As the economic situation in Venezuela gets bad, internal pressures in the country could well force extremists to demand that action be taken on the external front. Guyana has to be wary of this, and especially if the imperialists take back control of the government. If that happens, right wing generals are not likely to be friendly towards Guyana.
At the moment, relations between the Maduro administration and the government of Guyana are excellent. The Maduro government is not interested in annexing any part of Guyana. It is a socialist government and one that is anti- imperialist.
The agents of imperialism in Venezuela are however growing stronger and stronger.
They have successfully managed to sabotage the availability of basic commodities to consumers in that country and that led this year and last year to crippling protests in Venezuela. If the Maduro administration loses power, Guyana has to revisit its relations with that country.
What is needed therefore is a studied approach to this issue, one that is flexible enough to transition to a new mode should there be a change of government in Venezuela. Instead of therefore Guyana speaking about all its options being on the table, Guyana should instead be keeping its options open to cater for various contingencies that could arise.

---

---