PPP/PNC to be blamed for stagnant population

Jul 14, 2014 News

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…problem is migration for which we seem to have no interest – Chris Ram

 

The preliminary report on the Guyana Population and Housing Census 2012 which began in the fourth quarter of 2012 and closed in January 2013 has just been published, and as commentators continue their analysis, at least one has laid the blame for the decline in population at feet of both the Peoples National Congress and the Peoples Progressive Party Civic.

Eminent Chartered Accountant, Christopher Ram believes that a study of the figures reveals that had it not been for the afflictions on the country by the two parties during their tenure in Office at the helm of the country, Guyana’s currently population would have been more than double what it is at present

Ram in his analysis published on his chrisram.net outlet, notes that the decline in the population between the 2002 and the 2012 censuses is only the second time since the earliest censuses in the 1800s that Guyana has experienced falling population.

The first he said was during the period 1980 and 1991 when there was a much more pronounced decline of 36,000 persons.

The largest increase was between 1946 and 1960, reflecting the post-war baby boom that took place worldwide.

According to Ram, the decline between 1980 and 1991 would confirm the widely held view that Guyanese were no longer prepared to endure the PNC’s shamelessly rigged elections, denial of fundamental freedoms, an increasingly long list of restricted food and other items of import, and foreign exchange shortages.

“1980 was of course the year of the infamous Constitution that now allows the PPP/C to carry out all forms of excesses and plead that their action is consistent with the same objectionable Constitution…It seems reasonable to conclude that migration under the PNC was largely influenced by the push factors, which drove people out of the country.”

According to Ram, “the decline during the 2000 and 2012 period is no doubt due to a combination of factors, including the crime wave following the 2002 Jail Break, the culture of corruption spawned by the PPP/C Administration as well as what has come to be known as the pull factors of immigration with those who have gone before sponsoring those left behind.”

He said that with the more attractive jobs in the state sector reserved for the members and families of the PPP/C, “our graduates are migrating in increasing numbers to seek opportunities abroad…In other words, the PPP/C’s contribution to migration is a result of both the push and pull factors.”

Ram noted too that there are no reliable records available, if at all, of inward migration during the many years of the PNC rule “when the joke was that Guyana is a place you come from not go to.”

He said too that on the other hand the evidence is there of the large numbers of Chinese nationals all over Guyana and of Brazilians operating in the extractive and their support industries.

“Had it not been for these, the population decline would have been much more that the 3,339 reported.”

According to Ram, if Guyana had maintained growth rates experienced during the decade of the turbulent 60s, or even at the lower rates of growth per decade of 20 per cent and 15 per cent, the population would have been in the range of 1.2 million and 1.5 million.

“In other words, our population would have doubled. We would have had a surplus of skills, a large number of consumers, entrepreneurs and businesses. One and a half million may sound a lot but just think of the number of Guyanese in the Caribbean and North America and the magnitude shrinks to nothingness.”

He posited too that if “looked at another way, a 20 per cent increase over 10 years is only 1.84 per cent compounded annually, while a 15 per cent over 10 years require an annual compounded rate of 1.41 per cent….These are well below the annual growth rates of countries at our level of development… It is not however a question of fertility – the birth rate far exceeds the death rate – our problem is migration for which we seem to have no interest, let alone policy.”

According to Ram, the PNC seems unwilling or unable to accept that it made very serious mistakes during the period 1968 to 1992, when under pressure from the USA, it finally conceded to free and fair elections.

“None of its current leaders seem confident enough to accept that that the 1980 Constitution was custom-made for an elected dictator, that the right of citizens to eat the food of their choice was criminalized and that the exercise of the right of assembly, association and demonstration was met with harassment.”

He said too that it would be unfair to the PNC not to recognise some efforts at reform “but these have been too tentative and not far reaching…As a result, it seems unable to persuade its supporters that better days are ahead and that they should stay and struggle for change.”

According to Ram, the PPP/C has rapidly accumulated its own long list of violations, denying democracy to the citizens of the country, exploiting the Constitution as much as the PNC, engaging in political victimization and discrimination, all the while building a kleptocracy cum plutocracy.”

Ram said that many of its supporters see a party and government in which irreversible rot has set in.

“The preliminary results of the 2012 census confirm the results of past elections – that the PPP/C’s traditional support base is embarrassed and alienated from a party that has lost any sense of morality.”

According to Ram, given half a chance, “they too will continue the outward trek.”

Caption: Analyst, Christopher Ram

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