Census confirms dwindling PPP support – Ralph Ramkarran

Jul 14, 2014 News

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“all-Party Government…will restore political sanity”

 

The recently released census figures substantially confirm the analysis that People’s Progressive Party’s (PPP) Indian “stronghold” communities have significantly decreased, causing them the loss of absolute majority in government.

This is according to Former Speaker of the National Assembly, Attorney at Law Ralph Ramkarran.

According to Ramkarran, it was by no accident that the PPP lost its Parliamentary majority.

He said that it wasn’t only related to apathy and loss of support but it is now clear that it was also due to the reducing Indian population.

This being so, it means that the correcting of political mistakes alone will not be enough to restore the party to political health. “It needs to expand its political support across ethnic or traditional lines.”

Ramkarran in his weekly online column said that the new census figures concurs with what he had written about two years ago.

According to Ramkarran, in the 2012 article he had argued that declining Indian population had an impact on the election results of 2011, having regard to ethnic voting patterns.

Ramkarran explained that he had also indicated that the effect of a slowly decreasing Indian population could be seen in voting patterns and results since 1992.

The recent census results, according to the Former Speaker, show that in Region 6, a stronghold of the PPP, the population declined by 15,000 at the end of 2012. Adding Regions 5 and 3, also strongholds of the PPP, there was a total decline of 20,000 persons.

Ramkarran said that he had predicted at that time that the Indian population is likely to have gone below 40 percent.

Further he explained that the census of 2002 showed the Indian population to be 42 percent and he had based his prediction on the prior rate of decline. Ramkarran said that it’s quite possible that the Indian population is now below 40 percent.

“The confirmation of what I and others have predicted and which is now supported by the census figures as to the decreasing Indian population, holds considerable implications for the outcome of any future elections,” Ramkarran posited.

Moreover, Ramkarran said that in the event that some in the PPP still entertain the delusion they had in 2011 that cross-ethnic voting is in favour of the party and would have given it 60 percent, the history of the PNCR shows what self-delusion can do.

“Desmond Hoyte believed that he had broken the back of ethnic voting in 1992 and that the PNC would win the elections,” Ramkarran said.

He explained that political parties have consistently underestimated the power of ethnicity and the grip of ethnic voting patterns on the electorate.

He said that the PPP has done more than any other political party to expand its political support beyond its traditional base, but there has been little permanent success except in relation to the Amerindian people.

“The obstacle has been the ethnic hold on political expression and opinion. With confirmation of the reducing Indian population by the census, if the PPP wants to continue holding political power, it has to be prepared to share it. This is currently anathema, and was already publicly rejected, but there is no other choice.”

The Indian Arrival Committee (IAC) is close to the PPP. It issued a statement last week expressing its “alarm” over the census figures and its implications for economic growth.

After comparing figures between Guyana and Singapore showing a similar level of development in 1960, it then showed how Singapore moved ahead dramatically while Guyana stagnated. The IAC statement concluded that: “This reality should be cause for urgent action… The IAC strongly feels that the time has come for a serious re-examination of Governance initiatives which will enhance a feeling of inclusiveness and togetherness by all ethnic groups.”

This was followed by a statement by Mr. Hydar Ally, who writes in support of the PPP and Government in another section of the press: “Finding a governance mechanism acceptable to all continue to remain a challenge to democracies all over the world. This is especially so in ethnically diverse societies such as ours, where voting behaviour is often clouded by considerations that have little to do with programmes and policies, but more to do with sectional interests such as ethnicity and race.”

According to Ramkarran, the IAC statement is unusual and along with that of Hydar Ally, it gives public recognition from important PPP sources that more than a minority government is needed in the current conditions.

Ramkarran said it would not be an exaggeration to conclude that these statements probably reflect an internal PPP view at a high level, which is now finding its way in the public domain.

“The PPP has a golden opportunity to transform the political landscape in Guyana by boldly seizing the initiative and inviting the entire Opposition in the Government,” Ramkarran posited. He said that an all-Party Government, even for a limited period with limited objectives, will restore political sanity. But even if the PPP considers this to be anathema, the AFC has offered a way out, Ramkarran said.

Ramkarran reminded of the time that the AFC had offered an opportunity to the PPP to open a dialogue on the issue of governance.

“It’s ten-point plan, whether meritorious or not, shows that it is prepared to shelve its plan to consider a no confidence motion, which is an immediate threat to the survival of the government,” Ramkarran explained.

“The issue of a no confidence motion will inevitably arise again…If the PPP later changes its mind, it might be too late,” Ramkarran noted.

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