A POLL OR A POLE?

May 20, 2013 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Guyana does not have a culture of conducting opinion polls. As such whenever the results of an opinion poll are published it is often greeted with a fair amount of skepticism and suspicion.
There is justification for this attitude. There have been highly controversial polls conducted in Guyana. In some cases, there have been accusations that certain polls were doctored to certain desired outcomes. Both of the main opposition parties in Guyana have been associated with polls that have been dubbed as dubious. There have also been polls conducted by individuals whose own political views have cast shadows over their independence and thus the credibility of their polls.
In light of these developments, polls conducted in Guyana are often viewed with suspicion. This is all the more so if the results of those polls predicted a loss of support for some political parties in Guyana.
Questions have been asked as to why would Guyana need opinion polls relating to voter preferences. The argument goes that the electorate is so polarized in Guyana that it does not matter how good the government performs or how poorly the opposition behaves. The results of any election will by and large reflect the ethnic polarization in the society.
We have seen a little bit of this polarization in the just concluded poll by NACTA in which it is stated that while more than one fifth of the supporters of APNU are dissatisfied with the performance of the partnership, this has had little effect on how its supporters are likely to vote should an election be called today.
Notwithstanding this finding, which is consistent with how the preferences that the electorate has made in Guyana since 1992, there is a large cloud of suspicion hanging over the recent poll conducted by NACTA.
For one, of all the issues that the poll covered, it was the popularity of the ministers? Who is interested in that? And why was a poll about the popularity of the ministers launched just around the time that the various groups of the Peoples Progressive Party are preparing for this year’s party congress where a new Central Executive is likely to be elected.
The question needs to be asked as to whether this poll conducted by NACTA and given prominence only in the State and pro-government media is intended to galvanize support behind certain ministers. Why now? Is this poll part of a political agenda aimed at enhancing the political fortunes of select ministers so that they can improve their standing at Congress and deflect from anticipated criticisms?
The ranking of the ministers according to their approval rating is extremely surprising in the results released by NACTA. It is hard to see how any of those who have been rated highly in the recent polls could have a higher approval rating than Dr. Frank Anthony, who many feel has what it takes to assume the leadership of the party and even become its next presidential candidate.
On the other hand, some other ministers who have received high ratings are likely to come under serious scrutiny at the forthcoming Congress and there may even be a case for some of those who have been highly rated to be replaced.
In terms of the best debater during the recent Budget debate, it is hard to reconcile the findings of the poll with the actual performance during the parliamentary debates. For example, it is hard to see how someone like Moses Nagamootoo was not rated as the best debater on the opposition side.
There is hardly any disputing the performance of Ashni Singh. He is in a class of his own and was heads and shoulders above everyone else during the debates. But on the PPP side there was an excellent presentation by Rev. Kwame Gilbert which should have attracted a higher ranking when it comes to debating skills.
Another disturbing feature of the NACTA poll was about the issues polled. The poll concentrated on a number of issues such as the Budget cuts and the Oliver Tambo Award to Forbes Burnham. But why did it not cover other issues such as the issuance of radio licences? Why did the poll also not gauge public opinion on corruption and why did it not ask the public who it thought were the most corrupt ministers.
It is understandable that the pollsters would not have been able to publicise the latter information but it would have not been harmful to at least know how the public felt about certain ministers when it came to corruption. But then again that may have defeated the whole intention of the poll, would it not?

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