Book Review…The Arab Spring: What’s next?

Sep 30, 2012 News

By Dr Glenville Ashby
[email protected]

In a scene reminiscent of the Buddhist priest setting himself ablaze to protest the Vietnam War, Ramzi Al Abboudi, a young Tunisian graduate, immolated himself to highlight his plight and his country’s crippling economy.
This act of ultimate defiance – of altruistic suicide – sparked what has since been dubbed, The Arab Spring. With angst, rage, and hope – marked by tens of thousands of protesters – the end of family dynasties and rubber stamped parliaments were seemingly imminent. But

Dr. Glenville Ashby

in countries, such as Yemen and Syria, the old guard resisted – leading to political turmoil and civil war. Surely, no one can predict the fallout of the Arab Spring. However, we can identify the dynamics involved – the so-called paradigmatic elements that can help us understand our own societies.
As a teacher of Middle Eastern politics, no one is more qualified than Professor James L. Gelvin of the University of California to guide the reader through this political labyrinth.
Gelvin is the go-to guy for analysis when the powder keg called the Middle East shows signs of another eruption. The year-long developments there had Gelvin working overtime, crisscrossing the media circuits. Amid all the interviews, he found time to deliver a literary autopsy on a crisis with global implications. Gelvin’s work is painstakingly detailed. He challenges the worn theory that Islamic fundamentalists are the puppeteers behind the chaos. Instead, he examines the socio-political dynamics of each country, sidestepping gross generalizations. He explores demographics, political and economic governance, secularism, sectarianism, monarchical rule, and every nuance of Middle Eastern expression that has added to the social cauldron called, “The Arab Spring.” But, he avoids using this term, calling it premature and misleading. Spring connotes a rebirth – feelings of joy and expectation – a reality absent in that region – at least for now.
Gelvin findings are provocative. He evaluates the impact of the region’s “youth bulge” where approximately 60 percent of the population in the Arab world is under the age of thirty.
In Egypt, he comments, “young people with college degrees rank highest among the unemployed of any sector of youth, and in Syria, a vast majority of college graduates spend at least four years looking for employment before landing a job.”
Gelvin assesses the impact of cumbersome governmental take-over of economies that lead to sluggish GDPs, unsustainable subsidies, and lack of economic diversification. He states that socio-economic change at the behest of the IMF, has led to deregulation, and what he calls, “Crony Capitalism.”
Gelvin posits that decaying economies, suffocating social control (caused by decades-old state of emergencies), suspension of habeas corpus, a ubiquitous security apparatus, and the total disregard for transparency and accountability have produced the perfect storm that we are witnessing today.
The author pays particular attention to Syria. And for obvious reasons. A staunch Iranian ally with sway over the Hezbollah terror network in Lebanon, Syria has positioned itself as a deal maker in the region, especially in regards to peace with Israel.
The author uses Orwellianism, and Machiavellian politics to describe the Syrian response to protests. It’s about naked survival of the minority Alawite clan – rulers for over four decades. Here, the brutality is incredulous and unrivalled in the region. However, Gelvin is wrong in attributing Syria’s close ties with Iran only to geopolitics. To minimise the role of the historic rivalry between Sunni and Shia Islam in this particular conflict – as it is in Bahrain – is highly questionable. Sectarianism dies hard, if ever.
Overall, “Uprisings” proves engaging and elucidative. Despite its unflappable academic grounding, its appeal is universal. In many ways it’s a handbook on Arab politics with all its global implications. Indeed, it may serve as a warning to governments that are disconnected from the pulse of its young people – oftentimes criticised as the iTunes generation, steeped in self-entitlements and the whimsical.
But Arab youths (with technology at their finger tips) have proven quite capable of starting revolutions – on a dime -without firing a single bullet. Just ask Hosni Mubarak, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abedine Ben Ali, and Colonel Gaddafi (if he were alive).

Dr Glenville Ashby, literary critic – The Caribbean Book Review

The Arab Uprising: What Everyone Needs To Know by James L. Gelvin
Oxford University Press, 2012
ISBN 978-0-19-989177-1
Available: Amazon.com
Ratings: ****: Highly Recommended