WHO IS GOING TO REPLACE BARACK OBAMA AS THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT?

Jan 25, 2012 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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In a matter of hours, the United States President will give what will probably be his final State of the Union address to the Congress and to the people of the United States of America.
He is not expected, or at least some people feel so, to be re-elected as President of the United States come this November, and therefore all eyes are on the race for the Republican nomination. Those who feel that Barack Obama will not gain re-election this year are therefore focusing their attention on the Republican candidates, since it is felt that the new President will emerge from this group.
A few weeks ago, it seemed as if Mitt Romney was the frontrunner. But the tide seems to be turning against him, even though neither of his two main rivals have done enough so far to displace him. But the race for the Republican nomination is becoming very interesting and it is therefore going to be closely followed because there are projections that whoever emerges on top will make it all the way to the White House.
That person, of course, still has to get past Barack Obama, who has stumbled through his presidency. The economy has been his biggest bugbear and while there has been some recovery, it is not significant enough to change his fortunes. The economy has hurt the presidency of Barack Obama, since there is little that he can now do about it. His Wall Street/Main Street recovery plan has not worked, millions still remain out of jobs and there is growing uncertainty and anxiety that in order to rescue his presidency and improve his standing in the polls, the Democratic administration may be preparing for aggression against Iran.
Ironically, all of Obama’s main rivals are seriously opposed to the regime in Tehran and are all likely to be extremely hostile towards the government there.
Obama promised a great deal but has delivered very little. It is true that he was hogtied by the loss of support within the Congress, but the Democrats only have themselves to blame. Obama seemed to stutter through government in his first two years, the recovery was slow and his work was arduous. There was never going to be a quick fix of the American economy and unfortunately the patience of the American people, including the millions that supported Obama’s historic election, has waned. They want change and they are looking towards the Republicans for this change.
Obama did have his moments. He did ride on a popularity wave following the execution of Osama Bin Laden, but in the end what matters the most is what the people at home are experiencing. Delays in pulling the troops out of Iraq would not have helped his cause also, since he ran on a ticket of bringing the troops home.
The decline of Obama is evidence that there is a difference between the candidate and the president, there is a difference between campaigning and getting the job done after the campaign is over.
Barack Obama had one of the best campaign teams ever in the history of American presidential politics. He ran an effective campaign and his message prevailed over that of his main Democratic rival, his now Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and later his Republican rival.
Obama made a crucial mistake when he made Hillary Clinton, his Secretary of State. Her handling of American foreign policy has added nothing to that area and her shadow has been an unnecessary distraction for him.
But his failures go beyond his choices. It is clear that running the most powerful administration in the world was a step up from simply running the campaign and the problems that he faced were simply too much for him. He was given the job to clean up the mess that was left after the financial crisis hit and he has ended up in the mess that he now finds himself in.
It seems almost certain that he will gain the Democratic nomination. But even this can change. When Jimmy Carter was President he was challenged for the nomination even though he was contesting re-election. Edward Kennedy’s challenge hurt the Carter presidency and he lost out. But he also lost because of Iran and that country’s determination to humiliate him.
Iran is again in the news. And this issue may again decide the outcome of the elections in November. From all indications, the way is being paved for aggression against Iran. And any decision as to what form this will take can ultimately determine which of the Republican candidates are elected, depending on where they stand. At present it seems as if they all stand on the same line when it comes to Iran, but in the weeks ahead you can bet that divisions will emerge as the Republican candidates jockey for popularity using the Iran issue.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination looks destined to be the next President of the United States. It is always sad to see a historic president only last one term. But it does seem certain now that come November Barack Obama will not be re-elected.

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