Post-Jasmine Reality

Jan 18, 2012 Editorial

The revolution in Tunisia, dubbed the Jasmine Revolution, quickly spread across North Africa and into the Arabian Peninsula, generating the Tahir Revolution in Egypt and eventual regime change in Libya. However, even as there are ongoing intense pressures against the Syrian regime (which has not hesitated to unleash unrestrained force) the general euphoria seems to have petered out. There was surprisingly, some talk from certain quarters of the smell of the jasmine wafting as far south as Guyana While it never happened, we should not ignore events in that crucial oil-producing region.
It is unquestioned that there were quite unrealistic expectations of what would emanate from the mass uprisings against authoritarian governments. These expectations were engendered primarily by the western press that saw “democracy” blooming immediately in what they defined as an “Arab Spring”. The “democracy”, of course, would be of western definition and the present and prevalent disappointment is primarily because the people in the uprisings have ideas of their own as to how their governance ought to be structured and conducted.
We can discern the kernel of the contradiction in the name “Arab Spring” or “Arab Awakening”- implying that what is unfolding has suddenly sprung forth without any prior history. The fact of the matter is that in each of the country that has or is undergoing change, there has been continuous mobilization by the people to have their own say in governance. The only problem was that the west defined these forces as “reactionary” simply because their aspirations sprung from “religious” reservoirs. The irony was that the reaction of the west to these aspirations, which was to support local authoritarian regimes, also sprung from religious springs – but these were never accepted as such.
But there should be no surprise that in all countries which have witnessed some degree of protests, Islamist groups have gained significant ground. In Tunisia, a ‘moderate’ Islamic party has won plurality of the vote. In Libya, where regional forces are refusing to give up their arms or disband their militias, hard-line Islamists, including loyalists of al Qaeda, have secured influential positions. Egypt has surprised most observers, including knowledgeable Egyptians, by giving a huge electoral mandate to the Muslim Brotherhood and to Salafists; together, the two Islamist groups will control about 70 per cent of the seats in Parliament.
Similarly, in Yemen, the Islamists have gained ground and will emerge as the most influential force as and when President Saleh leaves the country. The same phenomenon is evident in Syria in a more acute form. Bahrain is possibly an exception, in the sense that the conflict there is between the minority Sunni ruling family and the majority Shia community.
We can expect that security forces, the army and police, will continue to wield significant, even decisive, influence in the stability of governments. The Turkish model will not be followed consciously given past history, but some variation of it should be expected to emerge at some stage. Libya has to go through the difficult process of creating an army out of disparate armed militias and will take longer to achieve stability. In Egypt, the armed forces, which have been used to wielding power for nearly five decades, will hold on to it for quite some time, especially since they also have significant vested interests in the economy.
Syria is a complex case, but certain facts are clear. Firstly, there is genuine popular demand for reform against the repression and use of ruthless force by the regime. But even with the intervention of outside allies, the regime commands significant local support, which may lead to a civil war. Israel and the west would be willing to allow an Islamist government in Syria, knowing that this would undercut the present support Iran receives from the regime. Here and across the region, the Shia-Sunni tensions and Saudi-Iranian rivalry will intensify.
We should expect higher oil prices.

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