THE PPP DID NOT LISTEN TO ME, BLAME JAGDEO

Dec 04, 2011 News

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By Ralph Seeram

I am in the midst of all the drama and tensions  here in Georgetown. Yes, I am here to witness events here first hand, the long-awaited results of the elections were just officially announced at time of writing and as you know by now the PPP has failed by one seat to gain a majority in Parliament.
It’s a new dawn in the history of politics in Guyana; the hung parliament means that for the first time in over 40 years all parties will be forced to work together for the greater good of Guyana.
This is not a novel situation. A similar event did occur in the first Proportional election in the sixties when the United Force joined with the PNC to form a Government.
The PPP may be surprised at the defeat, at the polls. It was a defeat, but readers of this column should not be surprised, I predicted this situation some ten months ago, yes when I mentioned that the PPP could be defeated in an article ten months ago, some readers and friends dismissed the idea.
The PPP seemed invincible then; nobody was paying attention to the changing dynamics in the voters’ pool and issues that could bring down the PPP.
Before getting to the “meat” of my headline, let me recount the last seventy-two hours since my arrival in Guyana. I got a sense of the tension before my arrival on Tuesday night, when I was informed that there was some difficulty in getting a taxi to pick me up late that night.
My friend informed me that no one wanted to be on the road that late.  Come Wednesday morning, talk of the town, indeed the entire country was asking when the results would be coming out.
The morning in Georgetown seemed normal, business were open, shoppers going about their business, the city was calm. This changed rapidly by noon when rumours started election were being flying, first it was the election was being rigged, next it was the APNU supporters were marching into the city, rumors began to spread exponentially.
I was in the vicinity of the United States Embassy around 2:00pm when my taxi driver said, “Something wrang.” He saw trucks and other traffic coming through a particular street we were on this was unusual. Then we saw the U S Embassy closed.
My driver said that we should get home. Then we saw armed police setting up barriers. Streets were being barricaded and after some detours we made it home.
Back home we saw that GECOM summoned a meeting of all the political leaders and urged them to call on their supporters to remain calm and to refrain from violence. GECOM head Dr. Steve Surujbally emphasized that GECOM will not  be rushed into releasing the results (It was waiting for the original certified documents from the interior areas. These were experiencing difficulties because of flooded airstrips). The results will only be released in full compliance with the law.
By then all the parties had the unofficial results of the polls but were asked by GECOM to await the release of the official results. A reliable source had informed me that the PPP had failed to gain a majority in Parliament but that Donald Ramotar would be President. The AFC leader gave the best speech in appealing for peace followed by Donald Ramotar.
The APNU leader, in contrast, instead of appealing for calm, began issuing veiled threats because of the security measures the Government put in place in the event of violence. By then he must have known that his followers were amassing a convoy to go into the city. This led to the rumours that caused the city to be closed down by 2:00pm.
The speech by David Granger gave the first clue to the keen observer that APNU had lost the election. The second clue he gave away unwittingly came a short time later he told the press he is opposed any secret swearing in of the President.
Thursday GECOM announced that the results will be announced at 2:00pm that day. The city again went into a partial shutdown.
So the big question is how did the PPP lose the majority in Parliament? Blame it on outgoing President Bharrat Jagdeo. Many in the PPP are also expressing this view. The Jagdeo meltdown during the last months of the election campaign turned off many of the swing voters; he personalized the campaign forgetting that it was Donald Ramotar who was running for President.
When I pointed out back in February that the PPP could be defeated due to certain factors, I mentioned also in subsequent articles that this election will see a new group of voters that grew up under the PPP. I warned the PPP not to beat on the PNC to this group but rather run on its record. This was the potential swing vote. I warned the PPP that its supporters are not happy and if its supporters failed to turn up the party will lose the election.
I warned the president that the “buck stops at his desk” when it comes to corruption and that he should take firm action, including a firing a few Ministers to show that he was serious about stamping out corruption. The PPP underestimated the youth vote. It failed to realize that a sizable portion of its supporters that lived under the PNC had migrated, hence beating up on the PNC about what happened 20-odd years ago was irrelevant to most of the eligible voters.
Back in February the Guyanese American Cultural Association of Central Florida had their annual funding Ball where a group of AFC members, including their leader Khemraj Ramjattan, attended. I had the opportunity to speak to the AFC leader and I told him that he would be the potential deal maker in this election.
I am sure he did not take me seriously then. When the PPP leaders came on their fund raising trip to Orlando I spoke to Mr. Donald Ramotar and Bharrat Jagdeo. I spoke to the President of the danger of losing the election.
He said that they “ran the numbers” and were sure of victory. Mr. Ramotar was more subdued. He said he was taking the election seriously and was paying attention to my suggestion.
When APNU leader David Granger came to Central Florida I raised the same factors with him. He was aware of the potential of the youth vote and said he will place great emphasis on youths. He pointed out that the PPP had neglected the youths.
Back to today and the reality of why the PPP lost. The melt down of the former President Jagdeo and his “cuss down” mentality as I said before, turned off swing voters, but the biggest blow to the PPP was its supporters.
Region Six had some 70,000 registered voters. How many votes did the PPP get from its stronghold? Less than 50%. The party received 32,000 votes, and while the AFC made some inroads with some 11,000 votes. The 16,000 that stayed away hurt them. Therein lay the one seat they badly needed.
Now we have to dwell on the future of Guyana. Is this the end of racial voting in Guyana? From all indications Guyanese are heading in that direction. This is a blessing in disguise for Guyana. Now we will see if all the political leaders will put their words into action. Will the AFC throw its weight behind the PPP?  And at what price? As I am writing, I am told that President Ramotar is holding talks with APNU and AFC. COMPROMISE will be the operating word as a deadlock Parliament will lead will to new elections which I am sure nobody wants. If the Opposition passes legislation the President does not approve he can veto them. Likewise the opposition can block bills like spending bill etc. from the PPP Government. I am sure the opposition will cooperate but they will stipulate that Bharrat Jagdeo “keep his nose out”.
The PPP has two of the best persons in Donald Ramotar and Sam Hinds who can reach across the aisle. Despite all the charges of corruption, no one has ever accused Sam Hinds of corruption. Ramotar has already stated even before the election that he is willing to work with the opposition.
No doubt the new President will have to shed some “dead weight” from Jagdeo’s regime in order to get cooperation. The Guyanese public therefore will look forward for statesmanship from all parties; the people will soon learn who really has their interest at heart.
Ralph Seeram can be reached at email: [email protected]

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