From the Diaspora...Is Jagdeo hurting the PPP?

From the Diaspora…Is Jagdeo hurting the PPP?

Nov 06, 2011 News

By Ralph Seeram

I guess nobody wants to say it, at least from the PPP camp, but Bharrat needs to step back and Donald will have to step up. The President is not helping; in fact I think he is turning off the swing voters. Yes I am going to say it Jagdeo is hurting the PPP campaign. I was very serious last week when I suggested the President tone it down. He needs to stop the “cussing” and “byuseing” and put emphasis on the PPP track record. I am sure he can find enough positives of his achievements to last the rest of the campaign.
Sure you’re supposed to ridicule and disparage your opponents in an election campaign; that is what election is all about, but there must be a strategy to it, if Bharrat has a strategy in his rhetoric, with all due respects to him, I think he is hurting Donald. I take it personal when he calls the media” vultures and carrion crows” In an election you need the media; you should make the media your best friend. The PPP must know that it will have to work overtime to get over the 50 per cent mark come this election. They need every cross over or neutral votes they can muster. There is no doubt that the President played a major role in the PPP winning the last election gaining more seats than ever. It should be noted that the PPP received fewer votes than the previous election.
I am not making this statement lightly, besides my own observation, I have spoken to many people on the ground, including some in the media, people who gave their candid opinion on the issues I should add that some of these friends are PPP supporters.
Donald Ramotar is caught between the proverbial “rock and a hard place”, but he must realize that he is running for President not Jagdeo, he needs to project himself much more than he is doing in this campaign.
One of the uncertainties of the coming election is voter turn out. There is a great deal at stake here. There has been a huge drop in voters turn out in the previous two elections. The 2001 elections saw some 396,000 valid votes cast. This was reduced to around 336,000 votes in the 2006 elections, a drop of approximately 60,000 votes.
The PPP received roughly 210,000 votes in the 2001 elections; the PNC 165,000. Taking a look at the 2006 elections the PPP despite winning the elections, saw a decrease of roughly 26,000 votes, this was even worse for the PNC who saw their support drop to 114,00 votes a loss of nearly 50,000 votes. One may ask if the PPP can afford to lose more supporters in the coming elections.
The answer is clearly no, I have no doubt that the PNC or APNU whichever name they choose to call themselves, will win back some of their supporters despite a strong challenge from the AFC. The AFC made inroads into the PNC voters. This shows that some voters can move away from the traditional voting patterns of race and be independent.
AFC did not hurt the PPP in the last elections but they feel that they have a great opportunity to do so in the next three weeks.
Enter Moses Nagamootoo; this is a coup for the AFC but will this translate into votes from the PPP? Moses hails from the heart of PPP support, the Corentyne, but can he do damage to the PPP? Not if the PPP keeps its mouth shut and ignore him.
If I were the PPP I would not respond to Moses. It is foolish and bad strategy to attack him.
In Hollywood, when a big movie star and a studio part ways, they always come out with a face saving response for both parties. “There were creative differences”. That’s it; and everybody moved on. Sometimes it is “we are moving in different directions”.
If I were the PPP I would have come out with a statement like this. “Mr. Nagamootoo was a party stalwart who gave tremendous service to the Party and the people of Guyana. The Party and Mr. Nagamootoo had some internal political differences and Mr. Nagamootoo has chosen to go in a different direction. We wish Mr. Nagamootoo well in his future endeavours”.
That should be it; end of story. Ignore him afterwards, but what has the PPP been doing? Responding to Moses. Now seriously, if Mr. Nagamootoo has been part of the PPP machinery for some 40 years, what kind of credibility do you think he can have now? Ignore the guy.
This reminds me of the biblical figure who after enjoying the “virgins and fruit of the land” came to the conclusion that “it is all vanity and vexation”. Moses enjoyed the “spoils” so it would be very difficult for him to now “bad talk” the PPP.
Leave him alone, Robert.
Personally, I think the AFC is made up of a bunch of disgruntled politicians, who suddenly got an epiphany after disagreements with their party. They shared the same philosophy of their party for years, and then suddenly when things did not go in their favour their former parties are suddenly unfit to rule the country.
The AFC feels very confident that they will `do much better in the coming elections, but it is my firm belief that the PNC will recapture some of the voters they lost to the AFC in the 2006 elections.
Which brings me back to the President and the PPP campaign. I don’t think the PPP has to worry about its supporters voting for another party. I think the problem will be for the PPP to get them to turn out to vote. And those swing voters, especially those 18 to 35 years old voters, please don’t carp on them about the PNC era. Some of them were not even born yet.
It’s the silly season before the festive season; we will see which season Guyanese voters will pay attention to in the coming weeks.
Ralph Seeram can be reached at email: [email protected]