HOW WILL APNU DIVIDE ITS SEATS AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

Oct 27, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

If the APNU continues to attract minuscule parties or individuals without mass support into its ranks, a situation could well emerge whereby its main constituent, the PNCR, ends up being marginalized after the elections.
The PNCR is the majority partner of APNU. It will bring more money and more votes to APNU than all of the other parties combined.
However because APNU is an open partnership it means that all the other parties have to be treated as political equals. As such, a place will have to be found at the banquet table for all the constituent members even though obviously some parties would have a more dominant presence.
The National Front Alliance (NFA) will no doubt have to be given a seat by APNU in the National Assembly; GAP will also be expecting a seat. The Working People’s Alliance should expect no less than three seats since it already has the Prime Ministerial candidate. Justice for All Party will want to claim at least two seats, and now that a grouping called the Peoples Partnership has emerged it too may want a seat.
The supporters of the AFC member that joined APNU would also expect him to be also afforded a seat.
In fact, given that APNU is an open partnership, it could mean that anyone who joins the partnership and has some prominence would expect to be given a seat in the National Assembly after the elections. By the time the roll call is finished, some twelve seats may have to be distributed to minuscule parties and individuals, leaving the PNCR with perhaps only about eight seats, assuming that APNU can win twenty seats this time around.
If only eight seats are left, how is this going to be distributed amongst the PNCR members? This is going to be contentious point because the PNCR is expected to account for 95 per cent of the total votes APNU receives, and to only be rewarded with a minority of seats will cause internal problems within the partnership.
These are the dangers inherent in an open partnership that is not likely to win the election. There will be problems with the seat distribution and this can cause irreparable harm to the PNCR because if its standing in the National Assembly is diluted, then the party may well disintegrate further.
When you win power, there is no problem because the spoils are larger. Burnham, for example, rewarded persons who joined him with ambassadorial appointments. But when you are in the opposition and the number of seats you win are limited there can be serious problems, more so under an open partnership where anyone and any group can join.
In fact individuals are encouraged to be part of an open partnership and when they do, they expect to have visibility after the elections.
In 1968, Burnham made a pledge based on his testy coalition with the United Force. Burnham pledged that he would never again enter into a coalition arrangement. During the 1964-1968 period, his relationship with the United Force was on the point of separation on a number of occasions.
It took the direct intervention of the United States to avoid a major breakup which could have left the PNC in a minority and open the possibility of the PPP successfully moving a motion of no confidence.
Given what is taking place now with persons openly crossing the floor, if the PNCR is marginalized within APNU and APNU ends up on the opposition benches, the PPP may be tempted to induce some of the APNU representatives from the other side to cross the floor and since these persons are part of the partnership, it will be morally indecent of APNU to use recall legislation to stop the ship-jumping.
The PPP is showing that it can encourage defections.
These are the dangers of an open partnership which goes beyond alliances with political parties. It would be interesting to see what happens after the elections should APNU not win. It will test the PNCR’s commitment to inclusive politics to see how they will deal with the division of seats and the threat of defections to the other side of the House.

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HOW WILL APNU DIVIDE ITS SEATS AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

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