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Global Warming Anyone?

Oct 26, 2011 Editorial

For a country with a coastland where most of its population are threatened by rising seas, one would have thought the issue of global warming would figure high on the agendas of the contentious politicians on the campaign trail. And even more so when, from the opposite (mitigation) end, Guyana has been in the forefront of the carbon sequestration movement and has already secured a commitment of US$250 million from Norway towards that end.
But the silence from the US is even more alarming considering that starting Nov. 28 (the day of our national elections) Governments will be meeting in Durban, South Africa, to launch the next round of climate treaty negotiations. While the Guyanese politicians might submit that they are taken up with more pressing matters (such as keeping up with who is on which side of the floor on any given day) what is the excuse of the US, the most profligate emitter? In the meantime, the global warming clock inexorably keeps on ticking.
Last Sunday, as reported by IPS, the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Zurich, Switzerland released new scientific analysis. It showed the window to limit global warming to less than the two degrees Celsius, which everyone had agreed was the tipping point, is closing so fast it can be measured in months. Unless the rise in carbon emissions is halted and reversed very soon, large parts of Africa, most of Russia and northern China will be two degrees Celsius warmer in less than 10 years. Canada and Alaska will soon follow, the regional study shows. And the seas will rise.
The group of leading experts show in its state-of-the-art analysis that to have a 66-percent or better probability of staying below two degrees Celsius this century, global carbon emissions must peak before 2020. Global emissions ought to be around 44 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020. That is four billion tonnes (also called gigatonnes, Gt) less than the estimated emissions for 2010.
After 2020, emissions must decline rapidly, about two to three percent less each year until they fall to 20 Gt by 2050, according to the computer models. This is an emissions “pathway that will be very challenging to achieve”, concluded the study. “Challenging” in science-speak means “extremely difficult”. This because, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, 80 percent of projected emissions from the power sector in 2020 are already locked in, as they will come from power plants that are currently in place or under construction today.
Although two degrees Celsius seems like a small amount, it is akin to a person running a high fever, with all kinds of consequences for the human body. On planet Earth, that amount of warming has serious consequences for food, water and biodiversity. It will guarantee more and stronger extreme weather events, including droughts and flooding. Two degrees Celsius puts humanity on a new hotter, stormier planet that is less compatible with human survival.
As for staying below 1.5 degrees Celsius, as African nations, Pacific Island states and others (such as the coastal Guyana) believe is essential for survival, it may already be too late. In all the 193 scenarios examined by the Swiss study, there were only two that suggest is it possible to stay below 1.5 Celsius during this century. And that includes heavy use of bio-energy with carbon capture and sequestration.
In 2008 President Obama had promised “a new chapter in America’s leadership on climate change,” and made all sorts of promises the following year at Copenhagen. But today, in the words of one analyst, “Climate change “has become a “four letter word” in Washington. While the stagnant economy might explain part of their reticence, one has to contrast their recalcitrance with the efforts of Europe where large swaths are in significantly worse shape.
In a hard hitting report on the same day as the Swiss study, the New York Times reported that the European Union is largely on target to meet its goal of reducing emissions. The US has to step up to the plate to bat in Durban.

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