Zero-sum politics by opposition parties

Jun 28, 2011 Letters

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Dear Editor,
I read with interest the decision by the joint opposition parties to launch ‘A Partnership for National Unity’ (APNU).
At the time of writing this article, there were no clear indications as to who will lead this outfit in the upcoming elections, although there is much speculation that David Granger, PNCR Presidential Candidate, is likely to be confirmed to that post.
There are speculations also that former WPA co-leader Rupert Roopnaraine will be named Prime Ministerial candidate.
The Alliance for Change has remained firm to its position that it will not enter into any engagement with either of the two major political parties, namely, the PPP/C and the PNCR.
This stance has not met with the full support of the AFC membership and there are clear signals of a rift in the AFC leadership on the issue.
I had in an earlier column given my own view on the issue, in which I mentioned that no serious political party should close its options when it comes to political engagement, especially in the context of political pluralism where the two major parties accounted for over 80 percent of the popular and electoral support, if the results of the previous four elections are anything to go by.
It would be recalled that one of the parties that now comprise the APNU, Mr. Peter Ramsaroop, was at one time named CEO of the AFC, but resigned shortly afterwards following disagreements with the AFC over the issue of alliance politics.
Whatever may have been the reason for the rather arrogant and snobbish stance taken by the AFC on the issue of alliance politics, such political inflexibility ought to be tempered by the changing realities on the ground, especially given the fact that Raphael Trotman, who led the AFC into relatively decent pickings at the last general and regional elections, has now opted to take a back seat in the new power configuration, which saw him not accept the Prime Ministerial slot for the incoming poll, despite a highly publicized rotational principle.
It remains to be seen whether and to what extent the AFC would be able to maintain, not to mention improve, on its electoral showing at the incoming poll, given the fact that Mr. Trotman is no longer in the driver’s seat, coupled with the obvious lack of any significant political constituency from the Ramjattan camp.
There are many who feel that the AFC is gradually losing whatever appeal it may have had initially, especially among Afro-Guyanese who once constituted the backbone of the AFC support base.
It is a known fact that the five seats won by the AFC in the last general election came primarily from the PNCR, and with Trotman practically out of the political limelight, it is anybody’s guess as to the political future of the AFC.
As for the WPA, there could be no doubt that that Party has failed to gain political traction, especially after the elections of 1992 when it suffered a humiliating rejection at the polls which was decisively won by the PPP/C.
The WPA, to its credit, stood up boldly and resolutely against the PNC dictatorship for democratic governance and an end to dictatorial rule.
Many still recall the heinous attacks on WPA leaders, most notably Walter Rodney, Rupert Roopnaraine, Dr. Clive Thomas and several other activists some of whom, including Walter Rodney, were killed by the regime for daring to stand up for the rights and dignity of the Guyanese working class.
It was felt that the WPA was not tactful and strategic enough to confront the PNC who, with its “steel is stronger” iron-fisted approach, found itself at the receiving end in the political struggle.
In what could be seen as an ironic twist of fate, the WPA today is aligning itself with the selfsame PNC in an effort to unseat the democratically elected and popular PPP/C from power.
It will be interesting to see how the new and emerging dynamics will play out. My own view is that voting behaviour in Guyana will not change in any fundamental way when compared to the last four elections which saw the PPP/C winning by a comfortable margin.
The PPP/C was able to win over half of the total votes cast in all the elections since 1992, which in effect meant that the Guyanese electorate on the whole is generally satisfied with the performance of the administration, and was prepared to re-elect it to office. This trend is most likely to continue in the upcoming national and regional elections, especially given the fissures in the opposition parties, more particularly that of the PNCR which is still to recover from a leadership struggle.
The PPP/C clearly has the political advantage. Its presidential candidate, Donald Ramotar, has the full support of the Party leadership and membership and is widely respected among party supporters, and for that matter Guyanese as a whole.
Because of the enormous strides made by the PPP/C government since 1992, the vast majority of Guyanese would like to see continuity and further consolidation of the gains made by the administration in all facets of national life.
The opposition parties, singly or collectively, are competing for the remaining 40% or so of the voting population who historically voted for the PNC and the other smaller parties.
In effect, there is a zero-sum effect which makes it difficult for opposition parties to gain, except at the expense of each other, as demonstrated in the previous election when the AFC won seats, but at the expense of the PNCR. Will it be able to do so again? Time will tell.
Hydar Ally

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