The State of the State II

Jun 27, 2011 Editorial

Yesterday we began our examination of Guyana’s position on the Fund for Peace’s 2011 “Failed States Index” – 99th of 177. With the higher the ranking, the more stable the state, overall Guyana was in the top half of the ranking – but with quite a way to go. We continue with disaggregating the political/ military components and begin with the “Security Apparatus” in which Guyana scored 6.3.
As the report explains: “The security apparatus should have a monopoly on the use of legitimate force. When the security apparatus is fractured or when competing or parallel groups exist, this weakens the social contract. A score of 6.3 means that there are severe problems existing in Guyana’s security apparatus.
Even in neighbouring T&T, where the murder and kidnapping rates are much higher than Guyana’s and the security forces appear incapable of taking on the criminals, they check in at 5.5.
While in Guyana there has been a recent statement that asserted Guyana’s security apparatus would be partial to one faction in the event of mass protests, this would not have factored in the assessment which incorporated data from last year. If it had been, the score might have been worse. Guyana definitely needs to address its internal security threats.
In the “Rise of Factionalized Elites” explained as, “When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain,” Guyana scores a surprising 5.1 as opposed to a 5.5 for T&T. Surprising in light of its history of intense ethnic violence and competition. This may be due to the PNC deciding to abjure street protests in recent years and certainly in 2010. The call from those that encourage protests is retrograde.
Moving to the list of social factors, the first one, “Mounting Demographic Pressures” – “Pressures on the population such as disease and natural disasters that make it difficult for the government to meet its social obligations”, it seems inexplicable that Guyana would score a 6.3. The 2005 flood is long gone and the government’s response capability to disasters has been much improved.
The “Movement of Refugees” rating of 3.6 is also awry. Which refugees are invading Guyana to strain its social resources? On the other hand, the “Chronic and Sustained Human Flight” rating of 8.4 is spot on. Guyana has one of the highest rates of emigration in the world which definitely leaves “a vacuum of human capital.”
The “Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance” category: “When tension and violence exists between groups, it undermines the state’s ability to provide security. When security is not guaranteed, violence and fear may ensue,” not surprisingly gets a high 5.9 score. As covered in other subsets above, in our estimation, this is the central problem of Guyana and maybe deserves a higher score.
Finally, there are the two economic factors that can engender state failure. First is “Uneven Economic Development”: When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract. Guyana comes in at a critically high 7.4.
There is of course the endemic underdevelopment of the Indigenous Peoples in the hinterland and the claimed ethnic “marginalisation” on the coastland. While the government has poured a tremendous amount of resources into hinterland development, the abysmal base from which it had to start means that it will be some years before the disparity is removed. On the coast, the ethnic imbalances must be investigated empirically and programs initiated to rectify confirmed instances. But the score seems too high.
The second economic factor is: “Poverty and Sharp or Severe Economic Decline” which “strains the ability of the state to meet its social obligations (and) includes such things as inflation and unemployment.” The last study in this area showed that our poverty rate was in the mid 30 percent and while anecdotal evidence suggests that this might have come down; there are definitely stubborn pockets of poverty – especially in the interior – that must be addressed. Guyana’s score of 6.4 appears fair.
Overall, the Failed State Index is a useful instrument to evaluate the state of our state.

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