NEW FACES AND INTERESTING TIMES AHEAD

Jun 22, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

When you are in a contest, you have to give of your best. No matter what is the outcome of that contest, so long as you give of your best, then there can be no dishonour in losing.
Come this year’s elections, the opposition parties and coalitions have to put their best foot forward. They have to enter these elections giving of their all and hoping for success. They have to try to have their supporters also give of their best.
But most of the opposition parties, I believe, know that even their combined best is not going to be good enough. This year’s election is not going to be one that the PPP is going to lose.
That may be possible in another ten years’ time when other parties would have emerged and some of the older parties would have undergone changes that would allow for greater public confidence in their ability to assume political office.
But when it comes to the general and regional elections of 2011, the result is predictable. The PPP is expected to win easily, and in a landslide.
The big question is not whether the PPP will win, but by how big a margin it will win. Anything over 10% constitutes a landslide.
A few weeks ago there were elections in Peru and the eventual winner secured victory by just about a 3% margin and this result was being forecast even before the polls opened. When the polls did open, exit polls also predicted that the eventual winner would prevail. This prediction was spot on and in fact the opposition conceded, despite the margin of victory being under 5%.
The PPP in 2006 won handily in a landslide. The opposition parties in Guyana, however, still have to show that they can put up a good show, but they too may have already accepted that a realistic goal would be to limit the ruling party’s share of the national vote to under 60%.
Within the ruling party, there may be expectations that it can extend its popular support to 60% of the votes cast. But this is not going to be easy. At best, the PPP may be able to gain around 55-56% of the total votes cast. Sixty per cent is going to be improbable, but something worth aiming for nonetheless.
The PPP therefore has to be realistic, too, since aiming too high can leave it disappointed after the elections. But the PPP knows for sure that it cannot lose these elections.
This, however, should not deter the other opposition parties and coalitions. The PNCR may be keen to examine how its new coalition does this time around, compared to the last one, at which it was thoroughly trounced. The PNCR may wish to test whether it loses core support because of its alignment with other small parties which are not expected to be massive vote -getters.
The PNCR is no doubt subject to internal pressures over its decision to enter into a coalition, especially considering the electoral appeal of its partners. Whatever the outcome of the elections, the PNCR would be expected to find positions for its coalition partners.
Thus, if there are six coalition partners and the PNCR gains 20 seats this time around, down from 22, it means that only fourteen of those seats may go to the PNCR representatives on the list. This will reduce the number of the party persons who will be parliamentarians, while foisting other political unknowns into the limelight. There is bound to be consternation over this development, but this is what happens when you enter into coalitions. You have to divide the spoils amongst the coalition partners.
The PPP will also have its own challenges. A number of the older heads will most certainly not be returned to public office. A number of its old guard will either be retired or pensioned off as advisers or diplomats. Their party is most certainly, if it does win as expected, not likely to have anyone from the 1992 Cabinet within the government.
There are going to be a number of new faces and there will definitely be a change of the guard. Experience will not matter anymore, because the PPP has been around for a long time now, and therefore there are persons rising within the party who can claim to be able to take over from the more seasoned hands.
The party, if its wins, as it is expected to do, has to find a new Speaker of the National Assembly.
A whole new complexion to the politics of Guyana will therefore emerge after the 2011 elections. Regardless of who forms the government, there will be a new faces and interesting times ahead for both the winners and the losers.

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