THE OLIGARCHS WILL DETERMINE WHO WINS THE ELECTION

Jun 11, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

During election time, a great many businessmen usually set aside three or four large envelopes of which two are usually bulky. However of these two bulky envelopes one is usually far heavier that the other.
The heavier one usually goes to the political party that the business person feels is going to win or wishes to win the election. The smaller of the bulkier envelopes goes to the other main party.
The small opposition parties will get a few thousand dollars in donations, but that will be as good as its gets for them. Some parties have nothing to get and therefore they have to campaign using their limited funds supplemented by the personal wealth of the leaders of the minor parties.
When it comes to the major parties, however, they are well supported. They get donations from many businesses that are quite prepared to spread their generosity widely covering all bases just in case the unexpected happens.
This is how many businesses safeguard their interests at election time. They give to all the major parties, but some parties get far more than others. This is called political insurance. However the tide turns, these guys are protected. They have no enemies.
Even close, very close friends of the government are believed to give donations to opposition parties, and some opposition supporters who are in business, ensure that they give the ruling party a donation.
This is no secret to the parties. The opposition party knows that when they approach certain businessmen that they will get a donation for their campaign. But they also know that the same businessman will give a bigger envelope to the ruling party. And the ruling party knows that there are some businessmen that will give them a donation and reserve a bigger donation for the opposition.
It is therefore not unexpected that the main political parties would reach out to the captains of industry and commerce in Guyana. After all, traditionally, this is where the bulk of election financing comes from. However, this year’s election is not going to be about the traditional captains of industry and commerce.
This year’s election is going to be about the new oligarchy that has arisen in Guyana. This is a set of individuals who have benefited enormously under the present regime and who have a vested interest in ensuring that the government is returned to power.
This oligarchy has secured for itself a firm footing within the political establishment. It has captured the governing class and has thus become the ruling class. It has unlimited sources of finance and it is going to ensure that nothing will stand in the way of a PPP victory.
As such, it is to be expected the oligarchy will pour billions, not millions, into the coffers of the ruling party.
The traditional business class may fool themselves into believing that they are still influential. They are no longer. They will not determine the outcome of this year’s elections.
To win an election, money is needed. None of the main political parties can run an effective campaign without a significant injection of funds. The small individual donations which have gained so much attention following the election of Barack Obama do not win elections. They are a miniscule contribution to campaign funds. Those giving these small individual donations may feel that they are making a massive contribution, but they are not. It helps pays some bills but does not make a big difference.
That big difference comes from the major campaign financiers, businesses that can individually give as much as $50M or more. Not all of these are local. It is not unusual to find some overseas investors making donations with the hope of gaining some return later when the government is elected.
That fifty-million-dollar donation is going to be chicken feed come this election. The oligarchs are going to make that look like small change. When the rallies start and the superstars descend on Guyana, then Guyanese will get a sample of just how strong is the financial support that will be thrown behind the ruling party.
Those who therefore feel that they will be able to match the spending power of the PPP in this year’s elections are dreaming. They have no chance. The PPP will raise a great deal of money this year and whatever the combined oppositions raises, the PPP will raise twenty times that amount, and all just to win about 60 per cent of the vote which is what the PPP will most likely be aiming for this time around.

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THE OLIGARCHS WILL DETERMINE WHO WINS THE ELECTION

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