The PPP has gotten the candidate it wanted

Feb 28, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Congratulations are in order for the leader of the PNCR, Mr. Robert Corbin. The election on Saturday of Mr. David Granger, as the party’s presidential candidate effectively means that Mr. Robert Corbin remains secure in his position as leader of the PNCR.
Mr. Corbin remains as leader of the party while it will be Mr. Granger who will lead the party into the elections. Mr. Granger is not likely to challenge or ask for Mr. Corbin to step aside as leader either before or after the national elections of this year. There will obviously be a great deal of pressure on Mr. Granger to do this: that is to demand the leadership of the party before the election, but this is not likely to happen.
That the PNCR has been forced to enter into this sort of formula whereby it has one person as leader and the other as its Presidential Candidate is reflective of the problems within the party. However, it can be a very useful arrangement whereby the Presidential Candidate concentrates on wooing the electorate while the leaders works on  rebuilding the party after its relative poor showing in the 2006 elections.
The leader of the PNCR is therefore likely to play an important role in the rebuilding of the party for the 2016 polls when the party stands a better chance than it does in the forthcoming elections.
The PPP is not going to lose the 2011 elections. Despite all the concerns about the lack of transparency in certain contracts, the benefits of those contracts are of such that they will filter down to the small man who is not likely to be unmoved in re-electing the PPP back to office.
Too much has been done over the past five years for the PPP to lose power. The economy is also much too strong and there have been much too great progress within the country for Guyanese to even think about putting the PNCR back into power.
The PNCR has also not helped itself. It has done very little over the past five years to allow its voter appeal to rise. And it will require more than a miracle for the party to move from 35% to the 48% which it may need to win the presidency. It will be defying all statistical odds for any party within five years to make such an improvement.
The PNCR has to reinvent itself if it is to stand any chance of achieving anywhere near the 43% of the total votes cast which it had secured in the 1992 and 1997 elections. The PNCR still enjoys solid support from its constituents but the PPP has made serious inroads into the PNCR’s support base and is sitting comfortably for this year elections.
The strength of the Guyanese economy and the amount of development that the PPP will unleash this year alone will, as polling day closes in, tilt the balance overwhelmingly in favour of the ruling party.
When the distribution of the computers begins, Guyanese will forget the controversies that have surrounded this project. They will be climbing over each other to obtain their own laptops.
And who knows if oil is found this year, then the PPP will surge further ahead.
In Mr. David Granger, the PPP has gotten the candidate that it wanted. The PPP will be very comfortable in challenging Mr. David Granger. They will feel that they have his measure and can easily defeat him at the polls. He is tailored-made for them.
This is not to say that the PPP cannot be defeated. Any political party stands a possibility of being defeated and this has been borne out in many cases.  But there is a better chance of this happening in 2016.
While the PNCR has been busy with identifying a process to select a Presidential Candidate, the PPP has been busy wooing non-traditional supporters.
The PPP has the numbers but it has not been content to sit on this advantage. It has continued to make inroads into the other bases of the opposition parties, including the middle class and therefore it may be justified in feeling that it has a good chance of winning the next elections comfortably.
When you examine all the controversies that are taking place and the indifference of the members of the public, the unwillingness even to protest in their own interest, the unavoidable conclusion is that the people of Guyana, in the main, are doing well and are happy with the situation and certainly not in the mood for change.
If the PNCR under both Hoyte and Corbin was unable to defeat the PPP at a time when there were serious problem in the society, how will a new Presidential Candidate of the PNCR be able to do so after five years of economic growth?
The fact that the opposition may have to wait five more years must however not be disconcerting. It does give them a chance to engage in the long process of rebuilding.
This is where Mr. Robert Corbin will play an important role. He is perhaps the  best suited individual to help rebuild the party. Not being challenged for the leadership will make his future role within the party much easier. His experience will be an asset to the party and also to its new Presidential Candidate of whom so much is expected.

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