Egypt Unchanged

Feb 13, 2011 Editorial

Now that Mubarak has finally departed (reportedly with US$billions) many are optimistic that democracy has finally arrived in Egypt. It would make a heart warming ending to a glorious narrative of raw courage by idealistic youths rising up against a dictator entrenched in power for thirty years. And succeeding.
But there is a fly in the ointment. Mubarak was not just a dictator: he was part of a dictatorial state system, with all the institutionalised structures that this implies. The dictatorship was based first and foremost on the army – from which Mubarak emerged, as did his predecessor Sadat and his predecessor Nasser.
There is, of course, a political party –the NDP – but it is just a shell to buttress assertions that a multi-party democracy exists. More substantial were the favoured business class that became immensely wealth from the liberalisation of the economy in the same decades as the Mubarak regime. This class formed a cohesive stratum that worked seamlessly with Mubarak and the army top brass to form a new ruling class.
Mubarak’s departure does not mean that the fundamental relationships that governed the country have changed: the army and the business class are still in the drivers’ seat, especially the former, which in fact has become even stronger. From the moment the protestors followed the example of Tunisia and came out in Tahrir Square, the army has played a strategic game to ensure the survival of the essential relations of the state.
In the beginning, it orchestrated a good cop—bad cop routine with the Police and Interior Ministry becoming the bad cop that unleashed force against the protestors as the army withdrew. When the protestors refused to be intimidated, the army returned with one general even hailing the protestors.
This reinforced the role of the army as the defender of the Egyptian state. The irony is that the protestors fully supported the role of the army, seemingly oblivious to its strategic retreats and advances.
From the army’s standpoint, the top brasses that are part of the regime had to have recognised that its ordinary troops that were swarmed by the protestors would have been sympathetic with the latter. The Egyptian army is a conscripted one and therefore its ranks have an identical mix as the protestors. By keeping its options open, the army was able to prevent any mutiny in the ranks such as has occurred in many other popular uprisings where the army took a hard line.
The business class also played its role to contain and direct the struggle into non-revolutionary paths. Banks were closed, ATM’s ran out of cash, communications were disrupted, stores and schools were closed, food prices began to rise to persuade the majority of the country on the sidelines that the crisis had to be contained before the economy crashed.
They firmly supported the army as the institution to create order.
With the departure of Mubarak, Egypt will now be ruled by a military council. The generals of the army have been thrust in the forefront and it is they who will decide how far the “democratisation” will go.
The head honcho, Field Marshall Tantawi isn’t noted for his democratic credentials. All these generals have very close relationships with their US counterparts, who have directed the flow of military aid and refurbishments that topped US$1 billion annually.
While they will obviously have to sound a more nationalistic note publicly than they have been doing in the past decades, the fundamental coincidence of interests with the US will remain firmly in place.
Both are more concerned with the rise of Iran and its perceived grab for regional hegemony – a role that the Egyptian army has always seen as reserved for their state.
They will have to include the Muslim Brotherhood in a more meaningful role but here again this group is committed to reform not revolution and shares the scepticism of Shia Iran. The bottom line is that the nature of the regime will remain fundamentally quite undisturbed.

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Egypt Unchanged

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Egypt Unchanged

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