WHAT IF THE AMERICANS HAVE MISCALCULATED?

Feb 12, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Whenever major change takes place unexpectedly internationally, it is usually evidence of a sweeping global revolution. The change that has so far swept Tunisia and Egypt were largely unexpected a few weeks ago but it is still too early to determine whether the world is in the throes of the second end of history.
The Americans would love to believe that this is happening and they may have played their cards badly in precipitating the demise of the Mubarak presidency.
They may have miscalculated and misjudged that what took place in Tunisia and Egypt represented a re-enactment of events that triggered the end of the powerful Russia empire. And so faced with the choice of supporting a staunch ally, the American opted to first call on the Mubarak to avoid using force against the protesters in his country, then called for him to respect the wishes of the people, then called for a clear transition and in the end actually made it clear, without saying it directly, that they expected him to comply with the wishes of the protesters who were calling for his removal.
What the protesters were unable to achieve in two weeks of energetic protests, was achieved with a little nudging from the Obama administration whose persistent calls in recent days for clarity about transition, made it clear that they wanted Mubarak to step down.
The President of Egypt who had been defiant to the end, eventually gave up yesterday and called it quits. The western media is announcing that the pro-democracy protesters have won. But are these protesters really pro democracy, and are they really as both the Egyptian government and the Obama administration feel are young people?
A great many of those in Tahrir Square do not seem young at all, unless youth starts at forty and fifty. A great many looked like middle class, middle aged Egyptians. This was no youthful revolution, as is being claimed.
And why the western media continues to refer to the people on the streets as pro-democracy is not clear. What happened in Egypt for all intents and purposes seem to have been inspired by events in Tunisia. This was a protest aimed at Mubarak. But can it be said that it was about pro-democracy?
The Israeli’s were worried that what was taking place could have led to the Muslim Brotherhood seizing power. They may have convinced themselves that this was not going to happen , thus the American ‘s decision to press for Mubarak to step down, which he did yesterday after refusing on Thursday to bow to international pressure to do so. With the protesters becoming more emboldened by the seeming American support, Mubarak was forced to step aside.
But who steps in his place? This is still unclear, just as it was when the Berlin Wall came down some twenty years ago. Israel must have been sure that whoever fills the void would not be a threat to their security, otherwise the Americans would not have been as persistent in asking the regime to bow to the wishes of the people.
But still this does not ensure that what will emerge will be a pro- western government. There is no way to telling which way the situation will go but the Americans are obviously hoping that it will go the same way as Eastern Europe did twenty years ago. They are hoping it will go towards western-friendly governments.
But suppose the Iranians are right? Suppose what has emerged in Tunisia is the beginning, not of the second end of history, but of the beginning of a new wave if Islamic governments of the world, that one type of government is being replaced by a more radical variety of Islamic governments in the Middle East.
Suppose instead of creating western- friendly governments, what emerges are regimes that are radically opposed to the western interests and to the state of Israel.
We shall have to wait and see but if things tip the wrong way, the American government would find itself in a most uncomfortable situation of pushing a long-standing ally out of power only to replace him with someone who may not be in America’s interest.

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