Negotiating a Transition

Feb 06, 2011 Editorial

The Egyptian Prime Minister has met with representatives of the protestors who have dedicated themselves to the proposition that President Mubarak must depart and there must be a more, open democratic political system instituted.
Behind the scenes, it is reported that the US has advised, they too would like to see such an outcome. With this confluence of forces, which ordinarily might be seen as being diametrically opposed, one may believe that change will be achieved peacefully in Egypt.
Not necessarily so, says the report, “Egypt: how to negotiate the transition lessons from Poland and China,” in Open Democracy this weekend.
It points to the bloody end to the uprising in China in Tiananmen Square as opposed to the peaceful success of Solidarity in Poland at the same historical moment of 1989/90.
It advises that the key to the outcome will be the negotiating posture of the representatives of the protestors that like those in China are dominated by youths without a long institutionalised structure for formulating strategic goals.
“In their experiment with consensus decision-making and with a constant influx of new participants, the leadership of the movement was fluid and divided, especially with a struggle heavily centralized in Beijing. The deliberately loose organization, in some ways its strength, presented obstacles to strategic planning.”
The Egyptian protestors are even more divided both in numbers and in ideology. Unfortunately this is not a circumstance that will be resolved soon.
Before and during the negotiations, it is suggested that “a non-violent occupation of a physical spot of whatever symbolic value is always risky for the protesters. They are easy for the opponents to remove.” In other words, now that the Egyptians have defined Tahir Square as the fount of their rebellion they should not stake everything on retaining its occupation. By voluntarily removing themselves after they have made their point, they are not offering the regime the opportunity of ever destroying the rebellion by physically driving them out, as in Tiananmen Square.
Secondly the Egyptian movement, like Solidarity but unlike Tiananmen, has widespread support in civil society and trade unions.
The pivotal issue for ultimate success is how far they can develop the present goodwill displayed by the armed forces. More than anything, it was “this fraternizing of the military with the largely non-violent insurgency may be part of what impelled Mubarak’s new vice president to offer negotiations.”
The army however, is also heavily influenced by the US and if the Islamicists within the negotiation team take outlier positions this may stiffen the top brass’ backs.
Also crucial to eventual success will be not to demand too much too soon as occurred in China. Even though the army in that instance was also divided and had top brass friendly to the goals of the protestors, party hardliners overrode them when the demands implied a destruction of the entire old order.
Solidarity was more circumspect, but then they had ten years of gradual development as against seven weeks by the Chinese radicals – not to mention eventually the example of disastrous end to the latters’ uprising.
In addition to the cultivation of the army and police, members of Mubarak’s party must also be given a stake in the future.
While they remain in the streets, the protestors also have to ensure that their responses to provocations do not escalate to armed responses as occurred in China. In Tiananmen, protestors stole weapons from the military and began attacking officers hours before the massacre.
Any attacks with weapons will force the army to respond in kind.
In conclusion the report advises sagely: “The history of people power has generally rewarded courage, initiative and persistence, but it has also rewarded strategy, tactical compromise, and setting polemics aside when the process of how to reach real power is being negotiated.
“Victorious are those who not only avoid tragedies such as Tiananmen but who also recognize when it is time to fight, how long it is smart to fight, and when it is time to solidify what has been won.”

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Negotiating a Transition

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