Egypt and Guyana

Feb 04, 2011 Editorial

The protests in Egypt that are shaking the foundations of the Egyptian state, and which will change the nature of that state whatever the dénouement, arise out of a conjuncture of circumstances that have several parallels with our local situation. As to whether the latter will precipitate extra-parliamentary pressures for regime change here, depend to a large degree on the administration’s willingness or refusal to alter its present course.
Like the PPP, Mubarak in Egypt inherited an authoritarian state that was designed to serve the government rather than the people. His hold on power depended on his control over the army and other state apparatus rather than his party’s involvement with, and mobilisation of, the masses of the people.
Sadat, his predecessor, had already initiated the movement away from the socialist basis of the society and economy, and Mubarak willingly implemented the tenets of the neo-liberal Washington Consensus foisted by the IMF/World Bank in the ’80s and ’90s.
In Guyana, we saw the same neo-liberal economic doctrines adopted and interestingly, the PPP’s wide legitimising grounding with the masses was allowed to wither, and as with Mubarak, the presidency became the locus of power. While the PPP has not resorted to the crude manipulation of the ballot as with Mubarak, or its predecessor, the PNC; it did not have to: its ethnic base assured it of successful majorities.
The PPP, like Mubarak’s NDP, is now machinery that cranks up at election time with huge infusions of cash from the nouveau riche. The end result, however, has been the same: the parliamentary democracy reduced to that of a notary that approves automatically, by its structure, the initiatives hatched in the office of the president.
The liberalisation of the economy with its corollary of privatisation of the previously high state ownership of the “commanding heights” of the economy in both countries gave the presidents the opportunity to create a business class that was subservient to their personal wishes.
With money pouring in from the multilaterals and friendly countries, not to mention remittances and taxes, the state took the lead in spending. Ostensibly, this was to develop infrastructure to facilitate private enterprise, but it has been used as a conduit for skimming off “rents” and for favouring cronies. And in the meantime, the state became the arbiter of private development with the president at the epicentre of a web of clientistic relationships.
While Mubarak and the President of Guyana can both boast of ostensibly decent GDP growth rates, around five per cent, this growth has not been achieved in an equitable manner. Elites have been created in both societies that skim off most of the economic gains and live in a manner that put the elite of the developed countries to shame.
The erstwhile mass-bases are expected to be satisfied with the crumbs that fall from the tables of the elites. While there may be echoes of the old populist rhetoric; that’s all it is – echoes.One can see this change in focus in the nature of the inner circle of the president and even the representatives in parliament in both Egypt and Guyana. These groups are increasingly dominated by individuals from the business class, while the representatives of the old mass organisations are shunted aside.
A tight knit group of business entities and the president’s circle have formed an interlocking directorate in Guyana. In Egypt, they are joined by some leaders of the army. It has been this lack of influence into the decision-making process as much as the inexorable immiseration of the masses, that have made the latter come out into the streets.
The key difference between Guyana and Egypt has been the role of the US in its operations, even after the end of the Cold War. As a key ally of the US in the combustible Middle East with its strategic reserves of oil, the former cannot afford to let events there simply unfold. The stakes are simply too high.
For Guyana, should there be pressures from below, they may be a bit more tolerant.

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