AS THE WORLD WAITS

Feb 01, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

As the world waits to see how the events in Egypt will turn out, the United States is bracing itself for one of the worst weather storms.
The winter season has been particularly harsh this time around and with blizzards expected in the Midwest and sweeping across states including New York, this week does not look very promising.
In Egypt, that country is in chaos caused by a leaderless and what now seems to be disorganised protests trying to bring about in their country what has taken place in Tunisia. Without a cause and now shifting their grouses from the issues of food and poverty to the call for the president to step down and for greater freedoms, the rich middle class of Egypt are hoping today to bring one million persons out into the streets.
If they succeed they will only intensify that confusion that is of their making. Great destruction has already been caused by their actions, and lives have been needlessly lost. In the meantime, foreigners are seeking to get out as foreign countries continue to call for restraint, mindful that the situation is so uncertain that the only thing which can be predicted is what the government will do.
Meanwhile, it is the poor who are suffering because of the situation. Businesses are closed, banks are closed and the curfews in place are limiting movement, except for those who are enjoying their moment in the sun in the capital’s main square.
Foreigners are besieging the airports trying to get out. The American government has already sent planes to get their citizens out but the airlift is not moving fast enough with only about 2,000 out of an estimated 70,000 Americans being flown out of Cairo. In the meantime the situation continues to be chaotic and this is not being helped by the demonstrations which seem to be without a leader and without direction.
Egyptians on the streets of Cairo are without a cause. They have many grouses but they seem to lack a united grouse upon which to call for the President to step down.
But the protestors would have to mass far more numbers than they do at present and their protests would have to be spread throughout Egypt and more importantly involve the millions of poor people in that country before the political elites will feel that they should begin to pack their suitcases and seek asylum overseas.
Egypt has eighty million people and a few tens of thousands in the streets are not going to create any revolution in that country, at least not while the army and police continue to show restraint.
The people have had a taste of what chaos means. Many have been forced to defend their homes against looters and therefore as long as the chaos continues, the security situation is bound to deteriorate to the detriment of the disorganised protesters who believe that they are in the midst of a historic moment, not realising that they have little clue about how to achieve change in the country.
The vast majority of Egyptians are compressed into a total area that is about half the size of Guyana. The rest of Egypt is mainly desert. This is why today’s developments are important because if the protesters fail to achieve the million persons they wish to see out in the streets, if they fail then the protests will peter out because it will mean that the vast majority of people of that country are not going to be part of the confusion that is taking place.
If the President vacates office, given his domination in the politics of Egypt over the past thirty years, he will be leaving his country to mob rule because in his absence there will be a political vacuum. The opposition is too weak and too fragmented to assume power at this stage. Thus the only realistic goal that the protesters should be aiming at is for a commitment for democratic elections within the next year, elections that will be supervised and monitored by the international observers.
But this persistent call being made by rich middle class protesters is not going to force the president to demit office because those making the calls are really just being carried away by the developments in Tunisia which cannot be replicated in a country as expansive and as populated as Egypt.
Americans will be closely watching what is taking place today, more so since millions are likely to be holed up in their homes as a result of the poor weather that should descend on parts of the country from today.

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