Egypt Totters

Jan 30, 2011 Editorial

The dust hasn’t quite settled on the departure of Tunisa’s dictator when it appears that he might be followed by his cohort from Egypt, Hosni Mubarak. In both instances, the pressures for regime change have come from an unheralded source: young people of all stripes plugged in, Matrix-like, to social networks like Twitter and Facebook.
This allows them to coordinate their collective action, without any centralized planning. Nobody saw it coming.
While the revolution in Tunisia was received with equanimity in most world capitals, the upheaval in Egypt has precipitated conniptions in several countries, especially in Washington and Tel Aviv. Israel, of course, has historically been at loggerheads with the Arab world over the fate of the Palestinians. It was the peace treaty with Egypt under Anwar Sadat in 1977 – brokered by US President Carter – that offered Israel respite from the fear of being driven back into the sea. Without Egypt, the other Arab states offer no real threat.
After Sadat’s assassination his successor Mubarak has kept Egypt on the sidelines, even after provocations such as Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. Israel has to be praying that Mubarak can ride out the storm.
For the Americans, Egypt has been their most reliable Arab ally in the Middle East. Lubricated by a huge foreign aid programme – which mostly manifests itself in military hardware – the US has been able to count on the support of Egypt although its overall foreign policy stance has been widely perceived by ordinary Arabs (and the Muslim world in general) to be anti-Islamic.
Unlike Israel, distance offers them some (albeit small) room to manoeuvre and we see this in their calibrated response to the mass uprising.
Both President Obama and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, have advised Mubarak to address concerns of the protestors and allow some further democratisation. Mubarak however, evidently harking to the events in Tunisia, has not wavered from his tough line: some 27 protestors have already been killed, hundreds wounded and thousands arrested by government troops. But unlike the last Egyptian revolt (by the Islamic Brotherhood in the 1990’s) which was successfully crushed, the new writing on the wall is suggested by the fact that he has also sacked his entire cabinet.
The Americans are keeping their options open in case Mubarak is toppled. At this point they must have breathed a sigh of relief that the protestors have not been dominated by Islamists such as the well-organised Islamic Brotherhood that once led the opposition to Mubarak.
If, however, Mubarak is toppled, it would be hard for the motley crew of mainly youthful protestors to take over and keep control of the reins of government. They just do not possess the organisational wherewithal: this is the strength of the Brotherhood.
The US would view this development as very unwelcome even though the Sunni Brotherhood, which is very anti-Al Quaida for various reasons, would also share its scepticism of the Shia theocracy in Iran. Even so, we may very well see much covert and even overt action to preclude such an eventuality, which would open up another swath of the Muslim world – now closer to its historic heartland – to destabilising turmoil.
For us in Guyana, the lesson is that Mubarak’s boast about rising GDP have not struck a chord with the ordinary Egyptian that has seen a small elite clique become scandalously wealthy even as their living standards have stagnated. The uprising has consequently brought out individuals from diverse, even hostile, ideological backgrounds in common cause against Mubarak.
Regular elections, which are due in September, have not served to assuage the citizenry’s dissatisfaction with the political regime. Mubarak’s efforts to have his son succeed him have further alienated the populace.
According to a WikiLeaks cable, even the military is opposed to the latter option.
Mubarak’s evisceration of the official opposition has given those forces that disagree with the regime no option but to protest in the streets. For a truly democratic culture to take root in a country, the opposition must believe that the system offers them a credible opportunity at governance.

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