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CHANGE IS ON ITS WAY?

Dec 19, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

As much as the contest for the presidential candidate for the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) is becoming extremely interesting with each passing day, it must be said that whoever becomes the designated candidate is going to end up being a “fall person.”
The reason is simple. The PPP is not likely to lose the next elections. In fact, the PPP stands its best chance of gaining around 55%.
The PPP may feel that with a weakened PNCR that it can take its count to around 60% of those casting their ballots, but this may be too optimistic, especially considering that the party will be going into this elections with a new presidential candidate, and one who is most likely not to have had the benefit that comes with exposure to public office.
Obviously, also, the PPP’s performance will be contingent on the party having its supporters registered, something it has been neglecting, and getting them out on Election Day to cast their ballot, something that it is very good at. All things considered, it is hard to see the PPP losing the next elections.
This does not mean that the PPP cannot lose. The PPP can lose the election if it does not do what it takes to win elections. But it is not likely to lose.
At the moment it faces an onslaught of criticism over corruption and the way its policies are enriching the wealthy.
It can easily deflect from the massive claims of corruption by going on a spending spree next year and by pointing to its record of rescuing Guyana, and by throwing the sort of resources behind its campaign as has never been seen in Guyana before.
But ridding itself of the charge that it has created a new economic oligarchy is going to be impossible.
As I suspect will be the efforts of the main opposition to win the next elections. This is why it is difficult to understand why the PNCR is exerting so much effort and resources in trying at this stage to identify a suitable presidential candidate. To what end?
Whoever the PNCR identifies as its next presidential candidate is not going to win the presidency.
That person will take the fall for the defeat of the party at the elections. This is why – given the great risk of defeat that faces the PNCR at the next elections – there has hardly been overwhelming insistence that the party’s presidential candidate should assume the leadership of the party.
This at least is to be expected, because it would seem unusual given the high probability that the PNCR will lose the next elections that the candidates for the party’s nod as presidential candidate are not making greater demands on the leadership.
Obviously there will be many persons who feel that the PNCR can win the next elections.
There are many who genuinely feel that change is on the way. It is. But it seems a very far way from these shores.
Change is further from Guyana than Santa is from the North Pole right now. At least Santa comes once a year, but in the case of Guyana it seems we have to wait every generation for there to be change. Guyana has been preaching change for a long time. It is the most elusive commodity on the market. It is supposed to be in ample supply, but it is always absent when it has been most needed in Guyana.
Change may be underway yes. It is coming Guyana’s way, for sure. But it sure is not getting here in time for next year’s elections.
The second major factor militating against change is the fixed mindset of Guyanese.
This is why it is all the more surprising that persons are lining up to become the next presidential candidate for the PNCR. Lining up, as they say, to join a losing slate.
What happens when the PNCR loses? What happens to the new candidate?
Will the supporters call for that person to take responsibility or will they stick with that person and press them for the leadership.

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