Obstacles to the third term

Aug 29, 2010 Features / Columnists, Freddie Kissoon

The third term question comes up all the time whenever I meet strangers who want to discuss politics with me. There is definitely a huge curiosity out there about Mr. Jagdeo’s intention. The fuel for this inquisitiveness is Mr. Jagdeo himself. You can say we are into September and Mr. Jagdeo is left with just about eight or nine months of power. But he carries on as if he is not a leader about to demit office. Any curious mind would be encouraged to ask about his political ambition.
You can just reel off your head the movements of the President that generate questions about the third term. He is into a rush to start a Marriott Hotel. In a style reminiscent of Rudolph Hess, he landed in Buxton. He is banking on the realization of his LCDS project. Entertainment projects are filling up the National Stadium faster than the waters that deluged Pakistan. Frequent arrangements are being signed with foreign governments that necessitate a travel itinerary more packed than a movie superstar.
So is Mr. Jagdeo composing a third term plan?
My honest opinion is that he is. What I am not sure about is how he will get it because the obstacles are formidable. Only one avenue awaits and though that may give him it, I believe it will have consequences that will destroy Guyana. Before we elaborate, there is a hurdle to overcome.
Speculators are saying that the continued presence of Mr. Ramotar on presidential foreign trips and cabinet retreats has settled the succession battle; Mr. Ramotar is the 2011 point man. There could be another interpretation to this factor. It could also be argued that Mr. Ramotar is the most serious challenger and his association with the corridors of state power could be the shaping of a covenant to come that will allow Mr. Ramotar to accept a compromise.
The Ramotar presence is not in my equation. I am firm in my belief that a Shakespearian drama will unfold to allow for a third try at the presidency. The road will not be an easy one to travel. It is not the PPP that will be the blockade. It is the PNC. First, if the PPP manages to pull seven PNC MPs independent of the PNC’s leadership, it will work. But the Gang of Seven will have to be treated with phenomenal generosity, perhaps never seen before in the Americas. The simple reason is that they hold a priceless gem in their hand. I don’t share the view that there are seven PNC MPs that will allow for a change of the Constitution without their party’s assent.
The most popular theory that has been around a long time and is gaining ground is power-sharing. Political observers have opined that Messrs Jagdeo and the PPP will ink a power-sharing document with Mr. Corbin and PNC. It will involve a mountainous retreat by Mr. Jagdeo on a number of unpopular policies (for example, the return of the Critchlow Labour College subsidy, upping the retirement age for civil servants) to please the African-Guyanese and PNC constituencies. That street will be impassible. Power-sharing is historic business. It is just not one party giving some authority to another. Power-sharing will mean the end of PPP’s domination of Guyana.
The only way the PNC, the TUC, ACDA and other strategically placed stakeholders in the African-Guyanese community, in addition to the AFC, WPA etc. will accept power-sharing is phenomenal changes to the Constitution that will see the virtual and legal end of PPP’s hegemony in Guyana. In effect that is what power-sharing is all about. Simply put, it is the legal and constitutional sharing of state authority that does not allow one single party to make policies on its own.
The PPP is not going to do that. Mr. Jagdeo is not going to do that. Something is not right here. If Mr. Jagdeo wants to win the presidency again in 2011 so he can implement the things he desires, then what makes him think that if he gets the two/thirds vote from the PNC, the PNC and other stakeholders will allow him to implement those very things he wants to do?
Let me conclude with what I have written about before. The PPP will get an expert in law to say that there are clauses and articles in the Constitution that can override the requirement of a two/thirds vote. It has happened with the Ethnic Relations Commission already. They will invoke that process to allow Mr. Jagdeo to run again. Should that happen, well…

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