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Aug 19, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The recent order to stop the state-owned National Communications Network from broadcasting to Berbice on an additional channel is an act of good faith on the part of the President. But what should not be read into this decision is the possibility of greater liberalization of the communication sector.
There was agreement, not drafted into law, between the government and the opposition placing a moratorium on the granting of new licences until the passage of broadcast legislation.
This legislation has not yet been passed, even though it is believed that the private media is unlikely to resist regulation as much as they did in the past. While sections of the private television stations were vehemently opposed to the idea of regulation by government, they would have, through experience, come to realize the value of such regulations in bringing order to the mass media and especially the need for greater standards.
As such, broadcast legislation is not likely to be as contentious as before. Consensus is not going to be as problematic as in the past. One of the main stumbling blocks towards greater liberalization – resistance to regulation – has been removed. The private broadcasters are going to be more receptive towards official regulation of their operations. Also, there is a court ruling which obligates the State to consider applications. Now with this good faith order by the President, which shows willingness on his part to ensure that the political agreement he reached with the opposition is not observed in the breach, there is likely to be greater optimism that the liberalization, especially of radio, could follow the passage of broadcast legislation.
Such optimism is misplaced. Even if broadcast legislation is passed, it makes no sense for investors to establish private radio or television stations. Technology has now made the establishment of individual radio and television stations redundant and no longer viable.
So long as the Guyanese economy grows at the rate it has been growing over the past four years, (there is no need for it to grow higher), then within the next five years, there are not going to be individual television stations beaming signals to homes in Guyana.
Instead, as we have now – over a dozen stations transmitting to the public – what we are going to have in Guyana, at the most, is one or two networks beaming over one hundred channels each into your home.
Instead of individual stations, we are going to have one or two networks transmitting hundreds of channels into the homes of about 70% of the Guyanese people. This is going to happen within the next five years, unless there is a massive downturn in the economy.
Cable networks are going to replace television stations. These stations are going to go out of business because they will not be able to compete with the cable networks. Right now private television is mainly broadcasting foreign programmes shown by foreign networks.
The local cable companies are going to eventually sign exclusive rights with most of the foreign networks and this would signal the end of most of the local television channels since they cannot afford the cost of producing their own shows.
But it is not just television that is going to be cornered. It is also radio. These cable networks are going to introduce IP radio. They are going to introduce internet access and eventually, perhaps within the next fifteen years, perhaps, extend into telephone services.
So, individual television stations have a limited lifespan. Within the next five years they will all either have to exit the local market or enter into contractual arrangements for retransmission to the local cable networks which would have cornered the local market. The local television stations are being kept alive by local advertising. But this market is also about to be cornered. This is a project in the making.
Those who have entered the cable market in Guyana have seen the future and they have taken steps to keep apace with technology. They are trendsetters and they will reap the rewards of their investments within the next five years by having almost total control of the local communication sector.
Therefore the issuance of new radio and television licences has become redundant. Those who therefore worry about the liberalization of radio and the grant of additional television licences are not closely following the trends and the developments in the sector.
Technology has bypassed the need for greater liberalization of radio and television. It is now all about cable.

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