THE AFC COULD BECOME THE NEXT MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY

Aug 04, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

This week we continue our examination of the decision of the Alliance For Change (AFC) against entering at this stage into any pre-election alliance with either the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) or the People’s Progressive Party (PPP).
Last week it was argued that this decision was consistent with the objective of creating a new political culture rather than simply aiming for a change of administration.
It was also pointed out that the history of political alliances in Guyana and the projected role that the AFC would play in any government emerging from such a process would have been more harmful to the long-term development of the party. Practical considerations would have also played a part in the decision of the AFC to be cautious about a pre-election alliance with the main opposition.
In the CADRES polls, the AFC was running not far behind the People’s National Congress Reform in terms of popular support. While the poll did help to generate greater interest in a Big Tent coalition to unseat the PPP at the next elections, it was discovered that the poll itself had what was described as a design bias. The sample chosen for the poll was not representative of the ethnic mix of the population. There was a disproportionate number of Guyanese of African origin in the poll, and this was what was deemed the design bias.
Even with this design bias poll, the PPP still managed to enjoy a popularity rating of 38% and enjoyed this rating after a protracted period when the PPP was coming under severe criticisms and examination over its management of the country.
If the PPP, in a period when the ruling administration was being besieged by so much controversy especially in relation to the inking of deals and the awarding of contracts, could still obtain a popularity rating close to 40%, it means that when the PPP begins to kick in its election campaign it will extend its rating easily to over 50%.
The PPP draws the bulk of its support from the East Indian community and the PNCR from the African Guyanese section of the population. In the CADRES poll sample, the percentage of Indo-Guyanese was far lower than the national demographic profile and the percentage of African Guyanese was above the national demographic profile. This design bias would have skewed the results in favour of the PNCR.
However, despite the poll’s methodology underestimating the ethnic grouping from which the PPP draws its core support, the ruling party still enjoyed a popularity rating of 38%. The unavoidable conclusion is therefore that the PPP is not likely to lose the next elections.
The AFC therefore may have opted for the more realistic goal of becoming the next main opposition party, and in the interim, work towards improving its image and attractiveness towards the electorate by forging alliances with like-minded individuals and civil society groupings which can widen its support base and increase its insertion into the middle class.
This more realistic goal would also be more comfortable with those within the AFC who are opposed to Khemraj Ramjattan becoming the party’s next presidential candidate. It would mean that he would lead the AFC into the next elections; he would also become the Leader of the Opposition and eventually have to give way in 2016 to Raphael Trotman when the AFC would be in a stronger position to challenge the PPP and perhaps win the presidency.

Latest News

THE AFC COULD BECOME THE NEXT MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY

Related

Similar Articles

The Glenn Lall Show|| March, 17th, 2025

Follow on Tik Tok @Glennlall

THE BLUNT OF THE DAY

Sports

NSC, Office of the DPP to host Criminal Law and Sexual Offences Act...

Lucas Chung maintains strong standing at 2nd...

Farm Supplies Ltd. supports Bartica Regatta 2025

Legislation and Investment: Trinidad to Brazil,...

Three more matches billed for this weekend

CM Khan rules at 2025 National Blitz Chess...

Features/Columnists

“One Guyana” is no less a national slogan than “Green Guyana”

If Guyana’s President Ali is the “Zelensky of the Caribbean”, who is the Putin?

Partner v. investor

Publisher’s Note

Weekend Cartoon

Bridge Watch

Demerara Harbour Bridge

> Berbice Bridge […]

THE AFC COULD BECOME THE NEXT MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY

Share this:

Related

Similar Articles

The Glenn Lall Show|| March, 17th, 2025

Follow on Tik Tok @Glennlall

THE BLUNT OF THE DAY

Sports

Features/Columnists

Publisher’s Note

Weekend Cartoon

Bridge Watch

Demerara Harbour Bridge

> Berbice Bridge […]