SURINAME IS NOT LIKELY TO PURSUE AN ADVENTURIST FOREIGN POLICY

Aug 02, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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The new government in Suriname, even with a former military strongman as President, is not likely to engage in military adventurism. Guyana, therefore has little to fear about aggression from its eastern neighbour.
The political situation in Suriname is still in flux. Since no party gained sufficient seats to form a government outright, what we have in Suriname is an arrangement that can remain unstable for a very long time.
This will inevitably mean that domestic political and economic concerns will devour a great deal of the time and energies of the government leaving little space for local frustrations to be diverted towards militaristic adventurism against Guyana.
The performance of the Surinamese economy is likely to be on the new government’s front-burner. Attention will have to be paid to overhauling the structure of the economy if it is going to be able to grow so as to ensure decent levels of development for the people of Suriname. Suriname needs heavy industrialization and this will entail it courting foreign investment. Trade imbalances will also have to be reversed and this is where the greatest threat to Guyana exists, since as part of this process, attention will have to be paid towards regularizing trade with countries such as Guyana where there is still a flourishing cross-border activity.
On the Surinamese side there is likely to be greater immigration controls as pressures are brought to bear on the new government to secure jobs and business for Surinamese. There is therefore likely to be some pressures on the thousands of Guyanese living in that country to regularize their status since this if often the means that are used to ensure that the State does not have to bear the heavy price of providing basic social services to foreign nationals living illegally in that country.
This has happened in Barbados where the decline in the economy led to pressures against the new government to remove Caribbean national residing in that country.
The government of Guyana should prepare a contingency plan for the Berbice area should there be a mass exodus of Guyanese from Suriname as immigration controls are tightened. At this stage there are no indications that such an exodus or mass expulsions will take place but it would be wise for the Guyana government to prepare for this eventuality rather than waiting until an uncontrollable crisis results. It will mean supporting greater investments in the Berbice area and of boosting job creation and export opportunities in that region.
In terms of militaristic adventurism, Guyana has nothing to fear. Throughout his years in power in Suriname, the new President never demonstrated a desire to settle differences with Guyana through the use of force. He is not likely to do so in the near future, given the concerns that are hanging over his head.
The President of Suriname will have to dedicate a great deal of his diplomatic resources in seeking political credibility. The Americans have already sent a rude message when instead of simply congratulating the new President, they added a caveat about respect for human rights and the rule of law.
There have also been calls, not accidental or co-incidental by any means, for Suriname to be denied entry to CARICOM. This is not likely to happen, not after the Dudus Coke scandal. Despite this scandal, the Jamaican government survived and heads of regional governments went there for their annual meeting. There is therefore little possibility of the new President being asked to remove his country from CARICOM simple because of his problems with Holland. Whether he will attend any meetings of that regional grouping is yet to be seen.
One of the main triggers for military adventurism has been neutralized. The maritime dispute between the two countries has been settled by a Law of the Sea tribunal. Any aggression by Suriname is likely to lead to widespread international condemnation and Guyana has international law on their side.
But more importantly, Suriname is not likely to invite such problems because this will work against efforts to gain international credibility for its new President and government, a government that is still very much a loose arrangement and whose survival will depend on not being divided by external matters.
Guyana should therefore concentrate on improving relations with Suriname by formulating protocols that would guide the movement of persons and goods between the two countries. A bridge link is a possibility but not likely to be pursued under the present government.
As such, while economic integration remains important, Guyana’s primary interests in relation to Suriname should circulate around securing benefits and protections for the thousands of Guyanese residing in that country.

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