Messianic Populism and Adventurism

Jul 28, 2010 Editorial

So we have two neighbouring countries – Suriname on the East and Venezuela on the west ruled by leaders – respectively Desi Bouterse and Hugo Chavez – that display(ed) definite tendencies towards populist messianic adventurism. Populism is not exactly unknown in Latin America and is generally characterised by: frustrated masses, charismatic leadership, a messianic impulse, the ability on the part of the charismatic leader to provide economic and/or symbolic gratifications to the masses, and the creation and deliberate magnification of an “external threat” used both for purposes of mobilization and also to legitimize domestic repression.
In Bouterse’s previous regimes as well as Chavez’s extended ones, all these elements have been prominent – not to mention the remarkable similarity of their rise to fame and messiahood. Born into poor families, both men entered the military as their ticket to bigger and better things. Both were very active in sports and of course, both staged coups that led to governments that displayed strong authoritarian, if not dictatorial strains. As we discussed previously in this space, Bouterse was re-elected to his country’s presidency – and so was Chavez – on account of the failure of previous regimes to address the concerns of the lower, depressed masses.
Both men know they have to deliver on these heightened expectations if they are to maintain their “democratic” credentials. They will therefore, as they have done in the past, carefully thread a path between authoritarianism and democracy with a tactical flexibility that steers clear of estranging the several groups that constitute the populist coalition.
The survival of populist regimes depends on three other main variables: The promotion of the cult of personality, class hatred, and the access to resources for redistribution. In Chavez’s case we have seen the cult of “Chavismo” spreading like wildfire among the poor that have been the main beneficiary of the redistribution of the state’s largesse. Many outsiders have wondered how with his extremely checkered past, Bouterse was able to garner so many votes: they forget the cult of personality cultivated in his previous incarnations.
If we look back at the long history of radical populist experiments in Latin America we would see that they have all generally disintegrated by economic crisis generated by mismanagement, generalized social protest and chaos, followed by a military uprising. In this case we have the perpetrators of military uprisings attempting populist revolutions and we can only predict that they will flail around with greater dangers to their neighbours as their experiments eventually crumble in their contradictions.
Chavez’s grandiose messianic ambitions add several layers of difficulty to the usual populist time bomb – and spells trouble for us in Guyana, in the long run. Chavez has announced from every rooftop that he can find that he considers himself not just a Venezuelan or Latin American liberator but a regional liberator. Hence his attention on the Caribbean through his PetroCaribe and ALBA initiatives. The trouble is that his ambitions are not just confined to his backyard – in which he is obviously seen as a puny inhabitant – but he wants to leverage that role to strut on the world stage.
To do this he has decided that he will engineer a shift in the global geopolitical balance of power against the United States, the West, capitalism and representative democracy, and in favour of an as yet ill-defined “XXIst Century Socialism”. This is seriously delusional. He is counting on Venezuela’s oil wealth – which he totally controls, without any institutional constraints – to fund his ambitions. The danger of that is that his foreign policy adventurism will lead him and Venezuela into grave and totally unnecessary international entanglements – especially against the US. What else can be the consequence of his new strategic doctrine of “asymmetrical warfare” for the armed forces designating the United States as Venezuela’s main enemy?
The match between Bouterse and Chavez is uncanny and as the leaders of two nations that claim more than three-quarters of Guyana, we must be very wary of becoming entangled in their adventurism. There is always the danger of us becoming their “external enemy”.

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