There will be no change of govt.

Jul 21, 2010 Letters

Dear Editor,
Permit me to share with fellow readers what I believe are some of the advantages the political opposition will have if they choose to engage in a constitutional struggle which is based on mass protests to win shared governance, instead of participating in an elections contest in 2011 without the required constitutional changes.
To go the route of participating outside of the requisite constitutional changes is in my opinion, reckless and foolhardy.
In outlining my perspectives on this issue I have attempted to simplify the arguments so that all citizens can follow the points I have raised and be able to participate in the discussions/debates, which I am hoping will result from what I am saying and recommending as the way forward.
(1) My first point is that elections in Guyana have historically, polarized the masses along party and racial lines.
A constitutional struggle for shared governance has a greater chance of uniting broad sections of the people across race and party under a common objective where there are no losers.
(2) In exercising the electoral option without constitutional changes, the opposition will force the various factions in the ruling PPP/C to unite because elections in this situation raises the issue of the party loosing power.
One of the things which Guyanese must understand is that the PPP/C loves power and knows what it has to do to hold on to it.
The constitutional struggle will have a different effect on the infighting in the PPP/C. It will allow the internal contradictions within the party to develop and sharpen since this form of struggle allows the ruling party the alternative of sharing power with other political and social forces.
(3) Elections allow all the advantages of incumbency and the abuse of state resources to help the PPP/C elections efforts while marginalising the opposition. Constitutional struggle will negate these advantages, rendering them to a great extent, irrelevant.
(4) Elections allow the PPP/C to access the full support of the drug cartels, including their financial and logistic support and their ability to intimidate sections of the populace and selected individuals at the behest and on behalf of the rulers.
While I accept the difficulty in bringing a halt to this kind of support which the PPP/C presently enjoys, I believe that a constitutional struggle if properly engaged can create new contradictions between the drug lords, the ruling party/government and the USA.
The cartels, in trying to prop up the regime, run the risk of provoking a more intense response from the US and other Western Powers, thereby putting themselves and the regime in a difficult situation.
This will benefit the opposition and the people.
(5) Election engagement by the opposition forces has over time, put the security forces in a dilemma where they are forced to protect the regime’s right to rule, in spite of its poor record of governance and its disrespect for and violations of the constitution and the rule of law.
Since election has the support of the political and civic elements in the society, it forces the security forces, the majority of who are known to vote against the rulers, to uphold the constitutionality of the government.
By exercising the constitutional reform option the opposition and by extension, a large sections of the masses, will be signaling their rejection of both the present election process and existing system of governance in the country, and are demanding the introduction of new systems to bring about meaningful change.
This will put the country in a profound crisis. In this situation the security forces will be more disposed to insist that the rulers seek a political solution to the crisis, a solution which recognises the demands of the people on the streets.
Tacuma Ogunseye

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