Joey wrong on T&T polls

Jun 07, 2010 Letters

Dear Editor,

I write in response to inaccurate comments relating to Vishnu Bisram made by Dr. Joey Jagan in his missive, “Unity and Change can defy any electoral system” (Kaieteur News June 2).

Firstly, let me state I agree with Joey that unity and peoples’ willingness to alter voting behaviour can change any government. However, Joey, given his national stature (as a Jagan) and as a potential candidate to lead a coalition of opposition forces, which he has been advocating, needs to be more sober in his judgment especially as it relates to Bisram’s polls.

As a political figure who has a lot to offer the nation, and as someone who is respected for his integrity and honesty, he should be the last person to be “kissoonesque” (making up information) in his commentaries. He made claims against me that cannot be substantiated with facts. In addition, Joey has not provided a correct interpretation of the NACTA (or other) opinion polls in Trinidad.

Firstly, contrary to what Joey wrote, I never conducted nor claimed to have conducted polls on the U.S. (2008) Presidential elections. I offered interpretations of polls and I did analyses of the U.S. Primary and general elections.

And while initially during the primary campaign, I wrote that Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama, based on polls conducted by others (not me), the findings changed and I altered my interpretations accordingly as published in the media.

I disagreed with some of the polls’ findings and showed how different polls gave different findings during the primaries, as well as during the general elections.

Secondly, I never visited or conducted polls in Iran and never made any such claim and would desist from further polling if Joey can produce information to the contrary.

Thirdly, with regards to the Trinidad elections, several aspects of my polls were borne out. The NACTA poll found that the PNM would lose one of its 41 deposits and it did. The poll found that the opposition will not lose any of its deposits and it did not.

The poll found that Jack Warner, the candidate for Chaguanas West, would get the most votes and he did. The poll found that Makandaal Daaga of Laventille West would get the least amount of votes among opposition candidates and he did.

The poll found that Patrick Manning would get about 64% of the votes in his San Fdo East constituency; he got 61% (within the poll’s 5% margin of error).

The poll projected a turnout rate of 70% of 1.05 million voters and indeed a fraction under 70% voted. The poll said the PNM would get a minimum 40% of the votes and it got 40%. The poll had projected 45% (within the margin of error). The poll said the opposition would get about 55% of the votes; it got 60% (within the 5% margin of error). The poll said the opposition would get at least 21 seats (Sunday before the election) and the momentum was on its side; it got 29 seats.

In seat projection, the poll was off but several seats were close and fell within the poll’s margin of error. No pollster (not even Joey Jagan) or political analyst predicted the exact outcome. Everyone, including the financial backers and political strategists, saw the outcome as close.

I stated on TV 6 on May 22 that it would take a tsunami for the PNM to lose its safe seats and that the opposition was gaining momentum from 3 days before the election and close contests were expected in PNM safe seats.

Other pollsters and analysts on TV ruled out close contests and the possibility of opposition wins in any of them. I did say if one PNM safe seat falls, others would also fall. As it turned out, six contiguous PNM seats fell. So the findings were not all wrong as Joey interpreted them self servingly.

Vishnu Bisram

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Joey wrong on T&T polls

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Joey wrong on T&T polls

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