TOO CLOSE TO CALL?

May 26, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Too close to call! That was what one Guyanese pollster had said about Monday’s General Election in Trinidad & Tobago.

It did not turn out that way at all. The United National Party (UNC)/ Congress of the People (COP) coalition swept to a resounding victory when the results were announced just hours after the elections.

Trinidad & Tobago now has a new Prime Minister, its first ever female Head of Government. She is entrusted with the unenviable task of trying to make her coalition work.

This is a major challenge since the last coalition government in that country suffered from internal fractures that eventually led to acrimonious relations.

The UNC was careful not to repeat the mistakes that it made then. The United National Congress in committing to a coalition with the Congress of the People did not make the same mistake as it did during the time of the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR).

It did not compromise on the Prime Ministerial Candidate as was done during ANR Robinson’s ill-fated coalition government which saw powerful business interests undermine the influence of the United National Congress in the government.

The UNC learnt its lessons well and elected Kamla Persad-Bissessar as both its leader and the person to lead Trinidad and Tobago should the coalition win the election, which it did on Monday.

Stability is always a major challenge within coalition governments and the UNC’s assumption of the post of Prime Minister will help to reduce some of the problems that usually arise within coalition governments.

In the case of the soon to be formed coalition government it will be helped by the fact that there is a dominant faction, the UNC, and another faction with a fair standing with the electorate, as demonstrated by the outstanding performance of its candidates in a number of constituencies.

For the losing PNM, it will be back to the drawing board. The election results virtually spell the end of the political leadership of Mr. Patrick Manning though he is likely to retain his parliamentary seat having convincingly won his constituency.

But his party will have to do an analysis of why it lost these elections at the time of an oil boom. Ultimately fingers are going to be pointed at the outgoing Prime Minister and the way in which he handled certain controversies.

He is also likely to be criticized for taking too great a political gamble by calling snap elections. But with the possibility of a vote of no confidence hanging over his head, he had little choice but to abbreviate his term and call an election.

Snap elections can work for governments during periods of high public favour. Some politicians have been known to call snap elections in order to benefit from the favourable opinion ratings. In the case of Mr. Patrick Manning, the snap elections were forced upon him and therefore from the day he announced his intention to go to the polls early, he was always going to be on the backfoot.

For the supporters of the PNM, it is not going to be easy to accept the loss of political power, but Patrick Manning has behaved like a true statesman and has accepted not just the will of the people, but has taken responsibility for his party’s humiliation at the polls.

Many leaders in the Caribbean who lost elections were not as a forthcoming as Manning was in conceding defeat even before all the results were in and more importantly, in accepting political responsibility for his party’s and government’s loss. In this regard, Patrick Manning has set a fine example of political accountability within the region.

But in the weeks and months ahead his outgoing administration will come under the microscope over its handling of the affairs of government.

The new government will certainly not go witch-hunting. This will be destructive to its own fortunes. But it will be unable to avoid examining some of the projects and issues which have proven highly controversial during the Manning years.

Despite the peacefulness with which the elections were conducted, and the calm that has ensued after the results were known, Trinidad and Tobago remains a deeply divided twin-island Republic. The ruling coalition has the numbers to change the constitution to promote greater inclusiveness, but it is most likely that it will see this first term as an opportunity to create a stable and workable coalition government, rather than attract controversy by seeking to institute constitutional change.

Trinidad and Tobago will move on after these elections. It is rich enough to do that and to show the rest of the Caribbean that change can be peaceful and stable.

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