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IMF ups growth predictions for Caribbean

Apr 22, 2010 News

Latin America and the Caribbean are showing a “strong” and “balanced” recovery, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, raising its 2010 growth forecasts for the region.
Strong domestic and external demand, good macroeconomic fundamentals and higher commodity prices will spur growth of 4 percent in the region in 2010 and 2011, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday. In October, the lender had forecast expansion of 2.9 percent in 2010.
“Having weathered the global downturn comparatively well, the Latin America and Caribbean region is posting a strong recovery,” according to the report, distributed at the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington. “More balanced than in most other areas, output growth in the region is supported by both external and domestic demand.”
Overall, risks to economic growth are on the upside, the report said, including the possibility of higher-than-forecast capital flows to the region.
Brazil, the region’s largest economy, will expand 5.5 percent in 2010 and 4.1 percent in 2011, led by “strong private consumption and investment,” after shrinking 0.2 percent in 2009, IMF said.
In January, the fund forecast 4.7 percent growth in 2010 and 3.7 percent in 2011.
Mexico, the regional economy hardest hit by the financial crisis, should expand 4.2 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent in 2011, after contracting 6.5 percent last year. In January, the fund had forecast 4 percent growth in 2010 and 4.7 percent expansion in 2011.
Venezuela’s recovery will be delayed by power shortages, leaving the country as the only major regional economy expected to contract this year, by 2.6 percent, before expanding 0.4 percent in 2011.
Domestic demand may pressure inflation targets in countries such as Brazil, prompting central bank policy makers to tighten fiscal policy this year, according to the report.
This possibility should be balanced with the need to keep existing stimulus policy in place while advanced economies cement their recovery, the IMF added.

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