Recent rains do not signal end of El Nino

Apr 19, 2010 News

– Hydromet Office

The Guyana Hydrometeorological Office (Hydromet) on Friday said that the current weather condition is not a confirmed indication of the end of the prolonged El Nino period. However, it is a transition phase, whereby there is a shift from dry to wet climatic conditions.

Guyana Hydrometeorological Officer, Garvin Cummings

According to Hydrologist, Garvin Cummings, the weather conditions that the Coast has been experiencing for the past few days are a result of the influences of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.
Cummings noted it would be inappropriate to conclude that the recent change in the weather pattern marks the end of the dry season. And it would not be accurate to say that it is the beginning of the rainy season.
“The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone has been influenced by a sub-tropical jet in the upper atmosphere, which in turn, has been causing moisture to move northward, resulting in the rainfall that we have had,” he said.
In light of this change in weather patterns, the Hydromet Office has been providing weather reports at two-hour intervals to the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Drainage and Irrigation Authority (NDIA).
“What the models are suggesting is that we are in a transition phase and this is probably one of the most difficult times for weather forecasters because we are not really in the dry season neither are we in the wet season,” Cummings reiterated.
The Hydrologist noted that high intensity rainfall can be expected. And the rainy season is expected to commence in May.
A recent model suggested that Guyana could experience as much as 35 percent of rainfall above the normal level, which indicates a 25 percent possibility of a La Nina situation.
“We don’t understand if El Niño has totally decayed or not but what we know is that the ITCZ is beginning to move northward and this is what brings Guyana’s primary rainfall,” Cummings said.
The Hydromet Office has recorded rainfall of three to five inches, which is expected to continue on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.