Bisram’s poll got it right

Jan 29, 2010 Letters

Dear Editor,
I am writing with regards to a letter captioned, “Bisram Got it Wrong”, by Mr. Freddie Kissoon (SN January 27), which is inaccurate and appears to bear a personal animosity for the internationally recognised pollster.
Mr. Kissoon got it wrong. Mr. Bisram got it right with some difficulties. I am a Trinidadian and I am quite familiar with the findings reported by NACTA in its several tracking poll reports on the UNC elections. There were no less than half a dozen tracking polls on various leadership issues as well as on popularity of the candidates.
Mr. Bisram’s poll correctly identified the winner before the start of voting and his exit poll was spot on even though there were doubts whether the landslide margin he projected for the winner at the close of voting would be accurate because others who commented on the voting process claimed there were serious discrepancies and irregularities in the voters’ list and in the voting procedures, suggesting the election would be rigged in favour of the incumbent Mr. Basdeo Panday. Others disputed Bisram’s “exit poll” findings of a landslide sweep of Panday’s challenger Kamla Persad Bissessar.
It is crystal clear that the tone of Mr. Kissoon’s letter and his introduction of Grenada in his comments suggest he has a personal problem with pollster Bisram.
Here are the facts: NACTA has consistently been getting it right since the 1995 elections which saw the UNC win that election. Every local and general elections as well as internal party elections since that time has been dead accurate according to the NACTA surveys.
The recently concluded elections of the UNC were also accurate recording even the shifts that took place 24 hours before voting started as well as when the voting closed. This was consternation to many when NACTA findings were transmitted on the airwaves on the night preceding the elections and at the close of voting.
Mr. Kissoon may not be familiar with the fact that Trinidad is a more sophisticated society and what gives the NACTA poll even greater credibility is when it was consistent in the 2007 General Elections, where a Barbadian pollster Peter Wickham conducted a poll on that elections paid for by big businesses and in the end that CADRES poll was way off. Also, Prof Selyn Ryan and three other pollsters were also wrong. Occasionally, I read Mr. Kissoon’s column, but I feel I should reply to his misquote of the poll’s findings – which suggests an agenda.
I am familiar with poll’s up to date numbers as released to the media and the political candidates. The one published in Kaieteur News (January 24), and which Kissoon did not correctly quoted, was not the final release.
There were two more. In Kaieteur News, Mr. Bisram reported that among UNC loyalist voting members, numbering about 25,000 Panday had 38%, Ramesh Maharaj 27%, and Bissessar 23%. But among dual UNC members (approximately 10,000), Bissessar had 74% (higher in later NACTA releases).
As best as I recollect, Mr. Bisram did not say which of the candidates would win although he suggested that Mr. Maharaj had no chance. The final release before voting commenced had Bissessar way ahead suggesting she would win. During the course of the voting, he also issued reports saying Bissessar was winning by a landslide from his exit poll findings which various candidates found hard to believe given the doubts of the voting exercise.
As a national of Trinidad, I am quite familiar with Bisram’s reports on the events of the day as he appeared on radio and TV. He was the first to announce a Bissessar victory long before the counting of votes began trickling in for a long night. He told the panelists on a live TV programme on CNC 3, the precise time the swing that started in Bissessar’s favour and how massive it was.
Others on the TV panel refused to believe him. In the end, the pollster was accurate and all the panelists were blushing.
The female TV anchor Francesca Hawkins even asked if he felt vindicated about his findings given the criticisms he faced, he humbly said no, saying he did the job to the best of his ability.
So it was Mr. Kissoon who was wrong and Mr. Bisram who was right.
Vimala Alexis

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Bisram’s poll got it right

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