THE PPP CAN BE BEATEN, BUT NOT OVERNIGHT

Jan 20, 2010 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Is political change possible in Guyana through the ballot box? This is the question that has bedeviled analysts in Guyana ever since the elections of 1992 when it was clear that ethnic voting was pronounced.
In the run-up to those elections there were negotiations within the Patriotic Coalition for Democracy (PCD) on a joint slate. The WPA assuming that the PNC would not have won more than 10% of the vote, overrated its electoral appeal, and adopted positions that eventually caused the concept of a joint slate to be abandoned by the PPP.
The WPA went into those elections still believing that it would have done well and that the PNC would have been pulverized. They did not cater for the ethnic security dilemma. In fact, the PNC emerged from those elections stronger than ever, gaining over forty per cent of the total votes cast. The PPP secured a majority, and the WPA which has done so much to discredit the Burnham administration, could barely muster fewer than 5% of the total votes cast.
The ethnic voting was replicated in all the elections that we have had since 1992. There was however in 2006, the emergence of a middle class party, called the Alliance For Change. They filled a vacuum in our political space by providing an alternative to the two main parties, but their following was mainly class-based, as demonstrated by their superior showing in the towns. In an impressive first showing they gained five seats, but this was not enough to allow them to wield the balance of power in the National Assembly.
The showing of the AFC has confirmed that the middle class may be liable to stick to a party that it feels represents its interest. And the middle class is growing in Guyana, but whether the AFC has the leadership and organization to expand its base towards this growing middle class is questionable.
During the last elections also, while the PPP marginally increased its take on the percentage of total votes cast, it got far less votes than it obtained in the 2001 elections. In addition, there is now a demographic shift, with East Indians now being just over 40% of the population.
The PPP however compensated for this shortfall in its traditional base by successfully wooing the Amerindian vote. The PPP also made serious inroads into the support base of the main opposition, especially in West Watooka, and while all the PNCR has been doing is begging for shared governance, the PPP has continued to make inroads into the PNC’s constituencies and has been able to bring on board a number of professionals which it previously could not boast of being within its ranks.
The PPP is thus attempting not only to win over persons who did not form part of its traditional support base but also to expand its support into the middle class so as to undercut the support of the AFC.
So is it possible for the PPP to be defeated under a Westminster-styled system. Of course it is possible? Those who argue that the PPP cannot be defeated seem to forget that the PNCR in 1997 had some backers who were telling the masses that the PNCR under Hoyte could win? The PPP has its own internal problems that are presently crippling its traditionally well-oiled election machinery. A number of its supporters were not registered during the last house-to-house registration and the internal problems within the party have not seen a serious effort by the party groups, from all accounts, to have these problems rectified. In addition, the party’s leadership problem may cost it votes in the next election, especially if a third term candidate materializes.
The PPP can therefore lose. Winning, however, cannot simply be wished. It has to be earned. It requires hard work and hard work over many years. Some persons however do not have the liberty of time. They would prefer to see the PPP legislate or negotiate itself out of power. After the 1997 elections, this was the strategy that was pursued leading to constitutional change, including some changes in the electoral system. But the PPP continued to do the groundwork as they have always done, and despite a reduced majority in the National Assembly, they have still retained the Presidency and a majority in the assembly.
This has led to frustration of those who wish to see the back of the PPP. But the real frustration should be directed not at the PPP, but at the failure of the opposition to retain traditional support bases. In the case of the PNCR, its support base has fallen to 35% and this is something that it needs to address. So instead of bashing the electoral system as entrenching the PPP permanently in power, the critics need to study the math, including the rates of voter turnout and the high rate of emigration. When these are factored into the growth of the middle class, it will prove that with hard work over time, not overnight, the PPP’s supposed unbeatable edge may be blunted.

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