$10,000 per bag of rice predicted…

Nov 27, 2009 News

As drought, cyclones cripple world harvests

By Leonard Gildarie

As a drought in India and cyclones in the Philippines cripple harvests, local officials in Guyana are predicting a possible market shortage and high consumer prices that may see rice being sold for as much as $10,000 per bag.
While this may be good news for local millers/exporters, rice farmers who were getting between $2,000 and $2,700 per bag of paddy for the last crop, will not be immediately seeing benefits.
Already, at least one rice company has written Minister of Agriculture, Robert Persaud. And several exporters have confirmed that they are holding on to rice for better prices on the world market which may force local prices up in coming months.
“We are very much concerned that the farmers who are now receiving between $2,000 and $2,700 for a bag of paddy will experience by the end of January that the rice prices might soar to about $10,000 also creating much concern for the consumers,” according to the letter from Ruimzeight Rice Producers Inc. The letter has been distributed to rice farmers.
The rice milling company also expressed concern over the recent deal with Venezuela for rice which it said “might look good but after deducting all costs, it will take the farmers’ price to $2400-$2700 which is contrary to expectation of the farming community.”
The company suggested that government quickly establish a proposed “Intervention Fund” so that farmers can benefit from any possible windfall of high prices.
Stressing that the evidence of impending high prices is there in the world market reports, the rice milling company also said that the “Intervention Fund” can possibly offer the farmers a realistic price of $3500 per bag of paddy and then hold the paddy when the price has risen and resell it.
According to a report on Bloomberg.com, rice may double to more than $1,000 a metric ton as dry El Nino weather shrinks output and the Philippines and India boost imports.
“Prices won’t peak until March,” said Rex Estoperez, a spokesman for the National Food Authority of the Philippines, the biggest importer. The agency issued a record tender for 600,000 tons recently and has called for bids for the same volume on Dec. 8 to secure grain before prices rise.
Global rice supplies are likely to be tighter than last year, when food shortages sparked riots from Haiti to Egypt, said Jeremy Zwinger, president of The Rice Trader, a brokerage and consulting company in Chico, California.
Escalating food prices threaten to spark unrest in developing nations while increasing costs for beer brewer Anheuser-Busch Cos., the biggest U.S. rice buyer, and cereal maker Kellogg Co.
“The demand-supply situation will be extremely tight, with India coming in the market,” said Mamadou Ciss, a rice broker since 1984 and now chief executive officer of Hermes Investments Pte Ltd. in Singapore. The Thai benchmark export price will likely rise at least 20 percent to $650 to $700 a ton in the next three to five months, he said. “The market can even touch $2,000 a ton in the middle of 2010,” Ciss said.
Recently, a statement from GRPA Action Committee, a group which has been outspoken on the rice industry, said that the price for paddy has now reached a peak, “hitting the $6,000 mark at the international market but Guyanese rice farmers are being given $2, 500 as the highest price on average.”
According to the statement, farmers in Essequibo and Berbice received $1,800 and $2,000 per bag at the commencement of this crop.
“The GRPA Action Committee demands the $3,000.00 promised by President Jagdeo. The government and the Guyana Rice Development Board (GDRB) have so far failed to negotiate better prices for rice farmer’s paddy.
They have instead engaged in a fruitless exercise of acquiring the “state of the art” machinery, rather than negotiating profitable price for our paddy,” said Jinnah Rahman of GRPA Action Committee.
“Essequibo rice farmers, in particular, have received only $2,300 and $2,400 bag for ‘A’ grade and ‘B’ grade, respectively for their paddy, despite the high expectation from the government that the so-called Venezuelan “deal” would have yielded at least $3,000 per bag.”

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